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Looking ahead to the TSC hearing

  • The key event for Monday will be Governor Bailey, Chief Economist Pill and external MPC members Mann and Saunders all testifying before the Treasury Select Committee regarding the Monetary Policy Report (due to begin this afternoon at 15:30GMT).
  • Note that following the August meeting, the testimony focused on which MPC members believed that the threshold for necessary (but not sufficient) conditions for tightening had been met (splitting the MPC into so-called "metters" and "non-metters").
  • We have already been told that the November decision was close but it will be interesting to hear the personal views of Pill (who was amongst those expected to potentially vote for a hike in November) and Mann (who voted to end QE early due to concerns about asset prices) regarding why they voted as they did.
  • As we noted in our review following the MPC meeting, market participants are likely to pay less attention to Bailey's comments than previously, but other MPC members' views still have the potential to be very market moving. Given that Saunders voted for a hike and has already been pretty vocal about his personal views, it is unlikely his comments will be market moving as he is clearly not the barometer of central opinion on the MPC.
  • We are also due to hear from Haskel at 9:30GMT (he's expected to remain on the dovish end of the spectrum), Mann again on Wednesday and Pill again on Friday.

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