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Looking ahead to tomorrow's ECB meeting

BONDS
  • Core fixed income has been drifting lower this morning, but moves have been more muted than the first couple of days of the week, and remain well within yesterday's ranges.
  • Economic data this morning has done little to move the needle.
  • There is not much else on the data calendar for the rest of the day, with the highlight being US wholesale inventories.
  • Markets are probably starting to look towards tomorrow's ECB decision. We published our ECB preview yesterday and note that while a 50bp hike in July is still a low probability, the risk is increasing. The probability of 50bp hikes in September or later is also increasing. Any language hinting at policy beyond September or at 50bp hikes is likely to be market moving tomorrow. Markets are now pricing a cumulative26bp by July and 71bp by September (i.e. over an 80% probability is priced into the market of a 50bp hike by September. For the full MNI ECB Preview click here.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-9+ today at 118-04 with 10y UST yields up 3.3bp at 3.009% and 2y yields up 1.9bp at 2.749%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.70 today at 149.11 with 10y Bund yields up 4.2bp at 1.332% and Schatz yields up 3.3bp at 0.690%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.49 today at 114.65 with 10y yields up 4.0bp at 2.253% and 2y yields up 3.1bp at 1.764%.
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