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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI UST Refunding Preview - Nov 2024
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead 28 Oct-3 Nov
Looking ahead to tomorrow's ECB meeting
- Core fixed income has been drifting lower this morning, but moves have been more muted than the first couple of days of the week, and remain well within yesterday's ranges.
- Economic data this morning has done little to move the needle.
- There is not much else on the data calendar for the rest of the day, with the highlight being US wholesale inventories.
- Markets are probably starting to look towards tomorrow's ECB decision. We published our ECB preview yesterday and note that while a 50bp hike in July is still a low probability, the risk is increasing. The probability of 50bp hikes in September or later is also increasing. Any language hinting at policy beyond September or at 50bp hikes is likely to be market moving tomorrow. Markets are now pricing a cumulative26bp by July and 71bp by September (i.e. over an 80% probability is priced into the market of a 50bp hike by September. For the full MNI ECB Preview click here.
- TY1 futures are down -0-9+ today at 118-04 with 10y UST yields up 3.3bp at 3.009% and 2y yields up 1.9bp at 2.749%.
- Bund futures are down -0.70 today at 149.11 with 10y Bund yields up 4.2bp at 1.332% and Schatz yields up 3.3bp at 0.690%.
- Gilt futures are down -0.49 today at 114.65 with 10y yields up 4.0bp at 2.253% and 2y yields up 3.1bp at 1.764%.
To read the full story
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Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.