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Low Crude Volatility with Futures Rangebound

OIL OPTIONS

Crude oil volatility is holding just above the lows from early March with futures trading within a 2.5$/bbl range since the start of the month. Concern for weak global demand is offsetting the upside supply pressures. Uncertainty remains over the compliance with OPEC cuts, future demand in China and the wider global demand with expectations that the US Fed may be getting closer to ending its rate hike cycle.

  • Second month ATM Brent implied volatility is down at 34.5% and WTI is down to 35.1%.
  • The Brent second month 25 delta call-put skew has drifted down to -6.5%% while WTI is holding around -6.3%.
  • The Brent Dec23 skew continues to drift lower driven by global economic concern and uncertainty over the China recovery. The Brent Dec23 skew is down to -6.3% and WTI is down at -7.4%.
    • Brent JUN 23 up 0.5% at 84.64$/bbl
    • WTI MAY 23 up 0.7% at 80.27$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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