Lower Than Settlement, But Paring Losses Overnight

WTI is ~-$0.60 and Brent is ~-$0.70 from settlement at typing, recovering from session lows to print $94.20 and $92.95, respectively.

• A sharp rally came on the back of unconfirmed reports (from Russian media outfits Ria and Sputnik) of a mortar and grenade attack by Ukrainian armed forces on Luhansk (recently recognised by Russia as a sovereign state). A reminder that western powers have warned of Russia possibly creating “false narratives” to justify military intervention in Ukraine.
• To recap, WTI traded as low as $90.0 on Wednesday, while Brent troughed at $91.1, tumbling in post-settlement trade as the Iranian nuclear talks in Vienna were seemingly moving in a positive direction. French Foreign Minister Le Drian suggested that “it is a question of days” when it comes to concrete developments on the matter. Optimism for a nuclear deal received a further boost when Iran’s top nuclear negotiator tweeted: “After weeks of intensive talks, we are closer than ever to an agreement.” However, he did caution that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though. Our negotiating partners need to be realistic, avoid intransigence and heed lessons of past 4yrs. Time for their serious decisions.”
• That was before the aforementioned worry re: Russia boosted geopolitical risk premium overnight.
• Looking to technical levels, support for WTI and Brent remain intact at $88.41 (Feb 9 low) and $89.93 (Feb 8 low) respectively, while resistance is seen at Feb 14 highs ($95.82 for WTI and $96.78 for Brent).