Majority Of FOMC Seems Predisposed To A "Skip", Data Notwithstanding (2/2)

Divides within the FOMC on the rate path forward are becoming more pronounced, though notwithstanding the impact of the May employment report on Jun 2 and the corresponding CPI print on Jun 13, a majority appears to support a “skip” at the June meeting.

• Some FOMC participants are leaning toward at least one further increase in the Funds rate. Most likely to support a hike in June are Mester, Bullard, Kashkari, Logan, Bowman, and Waller.
• They are likely in the minority on the FOMC. Bostic, Harker, Williams and Jefferson appear on board with a “skip” in June, and they will likely have support from others including Daly, Cook, Goolsbee, and Collins.
• A couple may be persuadable in either direction, depending on the data, including Barkin and Cook, though neither seems dogmatic about a June hike/skip (we haven’t heard from Cook since the May FOMC, but she is likely to lean dovish).
• Chair Powell is of course the key participant (along whose opinion the Board will vote, including Barr who hasn’t expressed a view) and seems genuinely willing to listen to arguments from either camp, but appears amenable to "skip" a meeting.

Source: MNI