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Mann outlines 3 reasons she changed her vote in March

BOE

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, Mann outlines 3 reasons to move to a hold from a hike:

  • 1) Consumers disciplining the pricing behaviour of firms.
    Mann says her concern has been around services inflation which is running at 6%. She says she has seen a change in behavious for discretionary services (hotels, restaurants, entertainment etc). People have finally decided "I'm not going to pay that pay" for a restaurant. That is a change in consumer behaviour.
  • 2) Changing dymanc of labour market between demand on the part of firms and labour supply coming from both households wanting to add hours and the NI cut.
    6 months ago due to high cost of living households were willing to work more hours. Now firms are saying wage bill is too high, want to cut hours and not add more headcount.-
    Also the OBR estimates that the NI cut will add the equivalent of 200k full-time workers.
    Think will start to see that in wage dynamics soon.
  • 3) The market curve. Mann says in Feb thought markets were pricing in too much of a cut. Now think that markets are a bit too complacent about how long they think the MPC will hold rates.
  • Notes there was "quite a bit of progress from Feb to March on the first 2.

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