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Marginally Cheaper Start, Retail Sales ex Inflation Flat In Q3

BONDS

NZGBs have opened dealing 1-3bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, light bear steepening is apparent. Global FI was cheaper yesterday, in lieu of stronger than forecast PMIs in Germany and the UK as well as headlines concerning the suspension of the German debt brake, which is weighing on NZGBs in early trade. There was a shortened trading day for US Tsy futures, with cash closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

  • 10-Year NZ US Swaps are stable and well within recent ranges, last printing at +55bps.
  • With next week's RBNZ Meeting in view; OIS remain stable, pricing no change in the OCR next week with ~40bps of cuts by Oct 24.
  • On the wires a short time ago Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation printed at 0.0% Q/Q, the prior read was revised a tick higher to -0.9% Q/Q. A fall of 0.7% had been expected.
  • The local docket is empty for the remainder of the session.
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