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Market Roundup, Forward Policy Focus

US

First FOMC policy annc of the new year at 1400ET, Fed Chairman Powell presser at 1430. No hike expected today -- but focus on forward guidance, clarity on timing of balance sheet run-off and quantitative tightening sometime after conclusion of QE in March.

  • Eurodollar futures starting to price in chance of more than just four quarterly 25bp rate hikes starting in March with additional hikes getting priced in (and hedged) for 2023.
  • Tsy futures trading steady (10s) to mixed with Bonds moving off lows, bit of a risk-on tone with equities firmer (ESH2 +65.0).
  • After a wild ride for stocks this week (recovering from a 200+ point drop to finish higher on Monday -- and a smaller repeat of price action Tuesday), SPX eminis are back near highs of the week (4425.5) at 4413.5 at the moment.
  • Focus on a heavy slate of earnings announcements (193 and heavy on financial names).
  • Tail-risk: serious escalation of Russia/Ukraine tensions not going to change today's FOMC annc but add serious volatility to markets.
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