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Market Roundup: Tsy Yld Curves Bear Flatten on Hawkish Hold from ECB

US TSYS
Rates trading weaker in late morning trade, near middle of session range, curves see-sawing flatter amid decent short end selling. Block/crosses weighing on the short end, 2YY hit 2.8401% high while 2s10s slipped -3.471 to 21.532 low.
  • Not much of a reaction to weekly claims coming out higher than exp at 229k (+22k) vs. 207k est, continuing claims largely in-line at 1.306M.
  • Focus more on the ECB hawkish hold policy annc prior to the NY open: rates extended lows on guidance of additional rate hikes in Sep and on w/potential for 50bp move anticipated; APP will end in July 1.
  • Tsy market getting ready for $19B 30Y Bond re-open auction at the top of the hour, WI currently running around 3.190%, 19.3bp cheaper to last month's high yield stop.
  • Technicals for TYU2 at 117-26.5 (-8): Short-term conditions remain bearish w/ 10s trading below the 50-day EMA - at 120-00. This EMA represents a key resistance and a clear break would allow for a stronger recovery towards 122-00.
  • The recent move away from the average continues to suggest the correction between May 9 - 26 is over. A continuation lower would open key support at 116-21, May 9 low.
  • Friday Focus: May CPI w/ estimates more than twice April currently around 0.7%.
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