July 08, 2022 14:38 GMT
US rates see-sawing near session lows after reversing modest gains on stronger than estimated June employ report +372k vs. +268k est, net revisions for April/May decline 74k.
- Strong data makes 75bp hike at end of month all the more likely while markets got a little carried away pricing in small chance of 100bp hike (<5%) before moderating the move over the last hour (balance of White pack (EDZ2-EDH3 currently -0.065-0.070 vs. -0.100-0.170 lows)
- Technicals for TYU2: Treasuries continue to retreat and the contract is softer following today's NFP data. The current pullback is still considered corrective, as long as price is above to remain above support at 116-11, the Jun 28 low. A break of this support is required to strengthen a bearish threat and would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on the short-term bull trigger at 120-16+, Wednesday’s high.
- Yield curves bear flattened but well off inverted lows, currently:
- 3M10Y +8.785, 112.633 (L: 101.91 / H: 114.57)
- 2Y10Y -0.088, -2.659 (L: -7.461 / H: -1.062)
- 2Y30Y -1.065, 15.364 (L: 8.284 / H: 18.625)
- 5Y30Y -0.432, 14.487 (L: 8.084 / H: 17.59)
- Cross asset: Crude and Gold prices have bounced off post data lows: WTO at 103.48 +.75 vs. 101.56L, Gold +7.15 at 1747.31 vs. 1743.22 low. Equities also bouncing: SPX emini futures ESU2 +7.5 at 3912.5.