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Bear Cycle Extension


(M2) Primary Downtrend Remains Intact


Corrective Bounce Extends


(M2) Corrective Cycle Still In Play

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  • Bearish momentum in local & USD bonds has followed through from last week into today’s session with yields higher across both curves. OFZs trade +10-21bp higher across the breadth with a bear flattening bias holding. Meanwhile, 2 & 7Y USD bond yields stand +23.8-34.4bp higher.
  • USD/RUB erased early downside to trade around Friday’s highs (+0.60%), with uncertainty keeping risk flows away from RUB as markets await written proposals from the West.
  • At these levels, RUB has a significant geopolitical risk premium in the price – reflected by the 5Y CDS.
  • 5Y CDS trades +28.6bp higher today, skyrocketing towards past the 200 mark as tensions with the West escalate – returning to 2016 levels. This trades over 150bp above similar countries like Saudi Arabia with a 5Y CDS at 53.
  • Stocks remain offered with the MOEX down -1.85%

MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 |

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