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Markets Roundup: 10Y Yields Off New 16Y High of 4.6861%

US TSYS
  • US rates finish at/near highs Thursday (TYZ3 at 107-31.5, +13) after a mildly volatile first half.
  • Treasury 10Y yield climbed to new 16Y high of 4.6861% amid fast two-way trade on heavy volumes post data: Weekly claims came out lower than expected (204k vs 215k est) Continuing Claims near in-line (1.670M vs. 1.675M est), GDP Price Index lower than expected (1.7% vs. 2.0% est), Personal Consumption missed (0.8% vs. 1.7% est).
  • Curves steepened broadly as bonds followed EGBs: Bunds, Gilts and JGBs joined the sovereign selloff, one desk noted. "Markets are either believing CBs higher for longer rhetoric or perhaps doubting the resolve to cause the pain needed to bring inflation down to target levels."
  • Rates climbed higher after midmorning Pending Home Sales data came out much lower than expected: MoM (-7.1% vs. -1.0% est), YoY (-18.8% vs. -13.0% est).
  • Little react to Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Federal Reserve can generate a rare soft landing while a "China slowdown, higher oil prices, government shutdown" are all risks to the outlook.
  • Fed Chairman Powell speaking at a teacher townhall event is not making any market moving policy statements.
  • Friday Data Calendar: Inventories, PCE, Chicago PMI, UofM Sentiment.
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