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Markets Roundup: Holding Firmer/Narrow Range Ahead FOMC

US TSYS
  • Tsy futures are holding higher levels on narrow range ahead of the FOMC policy announcement that includes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at the top of the hour. Fed Chairman Powell press conference at 1430ET
  • Futures had gapped higher following this morning's in-line to slightly lower PPI measures for November: Final Demand MoM (0.0% vs. 0.0% est, -0.4% prior revised from -0.5%), YoY (0.9% vs. 1.0% est, 1.2% prior revised from 1.3).
  • The combination of the solid supercore print overall core running well above target, and the unexpected dip in the unemployment rate in the past week certainly gives the FOMC reason to wait at least one more meeting to change its forward guidance. The market currently has a Dec’24 rate 85bps lower than the 2024 dot from Sept.
  • Futures back to pre-NFP levels with TYH4 tapping 110-31 high (10YY 4.1489% low) are back to 110-26.5 (+9) at the moment. Curves mixed: 3M10Y -6.029 at -125.673, 2Y10Y +2,103 at -51.128).
  • Inside recent ranges, TYH4 initial technical resistance at 111-09+ (High Dec 7 and bull trigger) vs. support at 109-27+ (20-day EMA).
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