MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - EURGBP Retains Bear Condition

Price Signal Summary – EUR/GBP Retains Bear-Mode Condition

• A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact, however yesterday’s sharp sell-off signals the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day average, at 5519.81. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Eurostoxx 50 futures have reversed course and this has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move lower highlights the start of a corrective cycle, paving the way for a pullback towards 4805.47 initially, a Fibonacci retracement.
• The latest move down in EURUSD appears corrective and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The 20-day EMA, at 1.1049, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.0960, allowing for a deeper correction. EURGBP is unchanged and remains in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s extension reinforces current conditions and the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. USDCAD traded higher Tuesday, shaking off the bearish backdrop. However, the latest climb appears to be a correction. The recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish condition and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up.
• The trend in Gold remains bullish and the recent sideways move marks a pause in the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The recent breach of $2483.7, Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. WTI futures maintain a softer tone. The contract traded sharply lower Tuesday, resulting in a break of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12.
• Bund futures have recovered from Monday’s low and from levels just below support at the 50-day EMA, at 133.43. Recent short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind.Gilt futures recovered Tuesday. The move signals the end of the recent corrective cycle and highlights an early reversal. The trend outlook is bullish and this is reinforced by a bullish moving average set-up on the continuation chart.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Testing Support At The 20-Day EMA    

• RES 4: 1.1300 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1276 High Jul 18 2023
• RES 2: 1.1234 1.618 proj of the Jun 26 - Jul 17 - Aug 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.1140/1202 High Aug 29 / High Aug 26 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 1.1056 @ 05:45 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 1.1026 Low Sep 03  
• SUP 2: 1.0990 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.0952 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0878 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 26 bull leg

The latest move down in EURUSD appears corrective and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The 20-day EMA, at 1.1049, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.0960, allowing for a deeper correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would set the scene for a climb towards 1.1234, a Fibonacci projection.  

GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback   

• RES 4: 1.3425 1.764 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing  
• RES 3: 1.3362 1.618 proj of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing  
• RES 2: 1.3328 76.4% retrace of the Jun 2021 - Sep 2022 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3200/3266 High Aug 30 / 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3115 @ 05:50 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 1.3088 Low Sep 03
• SUP 2: 1.3048 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2975 Low Aug 20 
• SUP 4: 1.2925 50-day EMA

A short-term bearish condition in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair has traded lower this week. The latest move down still appears to be a correction and firm support to watch lies at 1.3048, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising M/T trend condition. A resumption of gains would open 1.3328, a Fibonacci retracement.               

EURGBP TECHS: Bear Flag    

• RES 4: 0.8625 High Aug 8 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: 0.8593 High Aug 14  
• RES 2: 0.8545 High Aug 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 0.8437/8469 High Aug 28 / 20-Day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.8431 @ 06:24 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 0.8400 Low Aug 30 
• SUP 2: 0.8383 Low Jul 17 and a key support
• SUP 3: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 ‘22
• SUP 4: 0.8311 3.00 projection of the Aug 8 - 13 - 14 price swing  

EURGBP is unchanged and remains in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s extension reinforces current conditions and the cross has cleared all key retracement points of the rally between Jul 17 - Aug 8. The latest sideways move appears to be a flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern. Sights are on 0.8383, the Jul 17 low and the next key support. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8469, the 20-day EMA. A bounce would be considered corrective.      

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook        

• RES 4: 153.88 High Jul 31   
• RES 3: 150.11 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 149.39 High Aug 15     
• RES 1: 146.72/147.21 20-day EMA / High Sep 2    
• PRICE: 145.08 @ 06:40 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 143.45 Low Aug 26    
• SUP 2: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 2
• SUP 3: 140.25 Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY faced resistance Tuesday just above the 20-day EMA, at 146.72. The trend structure remains bearish and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A continuation lower would open key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. Initial firm support lies at 143.45, the Aug 26 low. On the upside, a break of the 20-day EMA would signal scope for a stronger correction.     

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Set-UP Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14  
• RES 3: 164.45 50-day EMA   
• RES 2: 164.04 200 DMA      
• RES 1: 162.09/89 20-day EMA / High Sep 2
• PRICE: 160.57 @ 07:12 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 160.03 Low Aug 29   
• SUP 2: 157.30/154.42 Low Aug 6 / 5 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 153.23 Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support

The trend outlook in EURJPY remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this reinforces a bearish theme. The recovery in August has allowed an oversold condition to unwind. The cross has recently pierced the 20-day EMA, at 162.09. A clear break of it would expose the 50-day EMA, at 164.45. For bears, a stronger reversal lower would open 154.42, the Aug 5 low.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends 

• RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 ‘23       
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                  
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 0.6824 High Aug 29 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.6710 @ 07:56 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 0.6672 50-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6571 Low Aug 15 
• SUP 3: 0.6508/6350 Low Aug 8/ 5 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23

A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The pair has breached support at the 20-day EMA and this has exposed a more important support at 0.6672, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of  0.6824, the Aug 29 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective  

• RES 4: 1.3739 High Aug 15
• RES 3: 1.3652 50-day EMA 
• RES 2: 1.3590 20-day EMA  
• RES 1: 1.3563 High Sep 03
• PRICE: 1.3542 @ 08:03 BST Sep 04
• SUP 1: 1.3441 Low Aug 28 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3420 Low Mar 08
• SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 - Aug 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 05

USDCAD traded higher Tuesday, shaking off the bearish backdrop. However, the latest climb appears to be a correction. The recent impulsive sell-off reinforces a bearish condition and moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up. A resumption of bearish activity would signal scope for a move towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.3590 the 20-day EMA.    

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Finds Support Just Below The 50-Day EMA 

• RES 4: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)       
• RES 3: 136.28 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 135.17/135.59 High Aug 14 / 6 
• RES 1: 134.49 High Aug 29                    
• PRICE: 134.09 @ 05:22 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 133.16 Low Sep 2            
• SUP 2: 133.00 Round number support 
• SUP 3: 132.54 61.8% retracement of the Jul 7 - Aug 5 rally
• SUP 4: 132.08 Low Jul 26

Bund futures have recovered from Monday’s low and from levels just below support at the 50-day EMA, at 133.43. Recent short-term weakness still appears to be corrective and this has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. First resistance is 134.49, the Aug 29 high, where a break would strengthen a near-term bullish condition. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would highlight scope for a deeper retracement.     

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Finds Support

• RES 4: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 3: 119.090 High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 118.300/118.530 High Aug 14 / 6     
• RES 1: 117.980 High Aug 29                 
• PRICE: 117.790 @ 06:03 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 117.356/320 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3      
• SUP 2: 117.140 Low Jul 30  
• SUP 3: 116.890 61.8% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bull leg
• SUP 4: 116.650 Low Jul 25

A corrective bear cycle in Bobl futures remains in play, however, the recovery Tuesday’s is potentially an early bullish signal. The contract has found support at the 50-day EMA, at 117.356. A stronger recovery and a break of initial resistance at 117.980, Aug 29 high, would strengthen a reversal condition. MA studies continue to highlight an uptrend. On the downside, a clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement.              

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing
• RES 2: 106.500/106.810 High Aug 6 / 5 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 106.360 High Aug 22   
• PRICE: 106.265 @ 06:15 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 106.125 Low Aug 15       
• SUP 2: 106.052 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 105.935 Low Jul 30 
• SUP 4: 105.630/495 Low Jul 22 / 11 

An uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact and recent weakness is considered corrective. The contract has pierced firm support at 106.208, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would be seen as a possible early bearish threat. Pivot support at the 50-day EMA, lies at 106.059. Initial resistance is at 106.360, the Aug 22 high. A break would signal a potential resumption of the uptrend.                         

GILT TECHS: (Z4) Reversal SIgnal                                           

• RES 4: 101.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 100.30 High Aug 14
• RES 2: 99.85 High Aug 22
• RES 1: 99.25 High Sep 3    
• PRICE: 98.91 @ Close Sep 3
• SUP 1: 98.11 Low Sep 2          
• SUP 2: 98.00 Round number support   
• SUP 3: 97.91 1.618 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing
• SUP 4: 97.73 1.764 proj of the Aug 14 - 16 - 22 price swing  

Gilt futures recovered Tuesday. The move signals the end of the recent corrective cycle and highlights an early reversal. The trend outlook is bullish and this is reinforced by a bullish moving average set-up on the continuation chart. An extension higher would signal scope for a move  towards the next firm resistance at 99.85, the Aug 22 high. On the downside, clearance of support at 98.11, Sep 2 low, would reinstate the recent bearish theme.        

BTP TECHS: (U4) Trend Structure Remains Bullish      

• RES 4: 121.25 2.382 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 1: 119.50/06 High Aug 29 / 22 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 118.95 @ Close Sep 3
• SUP 1: 118.24 Low Sep 2   
• SUP 2: 117.36 Low Jul 26 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8
• SUP 4: 114.72 Low Jul 2

The medium-term trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and the latest move lower is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up and a bullish trend sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact. Note that the move down has resulted in a print below 118.44, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and bull trigger is 120.06, Aug 22 high.                           

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Breaches MA Support             

• RES 4: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 3: 5087.00 High Jul 12 and a key resistance    
• RES 2: 5012.00 High Jul 16
• RES 1: 4998.00 High Sep 3 and a short-term bull trigger   
• PRICE: 4857.00 @ 08:03 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 4842.00 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 4805.47 38.2% retracement of Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 4747.00 50.0% retracement of Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 4718.00 Low Aug 14  

Eurostoxx 50 futures have reversed course and this has resulted in a break of both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The move lower highlights the start of a corrective cycle, paving the way for a pullback towards 4805.47 initially, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm short-term resistance has been defined at 4998.00, the Sep 3 high. A break of this level would reinstate the recent bullish theme.               

E-MINI S&P: (U4) Corrective Cycle           

• RES 4: 5821.25 1.00 proj of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 - Aug 5 price swing  
• RES 3: 5800.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 2: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and key resistance
• RES 1: 5566.09/5669.75 20-day EMA / High Sep 3 and a bull trigger         
• PRICE: 5514.50 @ 05:50 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: 5507.50 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 5459.75 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 5438.75 Low Aug 14   
• SUP 4: 5394.88 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 bull leg

A bullish theme S&P E-Minis remains intact, however yesterday’s sharp sell-off signals the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA and pierced support at the 50-day average, at 5519.81. A clear break of the 50-day EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 5459.75, a Fibonacci retracement. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 5669.75, the Sep 3 high. A breach of it would be bullish.    

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (X4) Trades Through The Bear Trigger      

• RES 4: $86.24 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $83.50 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Aug 5 bear leg
• RES 2: $80.53/81.46 - High Aug 26 / 12 and key resistance
• RES 1: $77.88 - 20-day EMA     
• PRICE: $73.48 @ 07:07 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: $73.14 - Intraday low  
• SUP 2: $70.35 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 3: $68.99 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $67.63 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing  

Brent futures traded sharply lower Tuesday and this has resulted in a break of support at $74.62, the Aug 5 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in April and paves the way for an extension towards $70.35, a Fibonacci projection. A key support at $73.16, the Dec 13 ‘23 low, has been pierced. A clear break of this support would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is at $77.88, the 20-day EMA.     

WTI TECHS: (V4) Southbound      

• RES 4: $83.45 - High Apr 12 and a medium-term bull trigger
• RES 3: $82.62 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $80.82 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $74.65/78.54 - 20-day EMA / High Aug 12 and key resistance     
• PRICE: $69.95 @ 07:20 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: $69.72 - Intraday low   
• SUP 2: $68.92 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 3: $66.66 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing
• SUP 4: $65.30 - 1.50 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing

WTI futures maintain a softer tone. The contract traded sharply lower Tuesday, resulting in a break of key support at $70.88, the Aug 5 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Apr 12 and paves the way for an extension towards $68.92, the Dec 13 ‘23 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a clear downtrend. Initial resistance is at $74.65, the 20-day EMA.       

GOLD TECHS: Bulls Pause For Breath    

• RES 4: $2600.0 - Round number resistance    
• RES 3: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 ‘23 price swing
• RES 2: $2536.4 - 1.50 proj of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing 
• RES 1: $2531.8 - High Aug 20                 
• PRICE: $2491.1 @ 07:26 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: $2484.5/2473.5 - 20-day EMA / Low Sep 3 
• SUP 2: $2438.6 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: $2417.0 - Low Sep 8 
• SUP 4: $2364.4 - Low Aug 5 

The trend in Gold remains bullish and the recent sideways move marks a pause in the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant uptrend. The recent breach of $2483.7, Jul 17 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the focus is on $2536.4 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at $2483.6, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a move lower would  be considered corrective.       

SILVER TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish   

• RES 4: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing       
• RES 3: $31.754/32.518 - High Jul 11 / High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $30.502 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug 8 bear leg
• RES 1: $28.943/30.192 - 50-day EMA / High Aug 26                 
• PRICE: $27.896 @ 08:07 BST Sep 4
• SUP 1: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A medium-term bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and the latest sell-off reinforces this theme. The metal on Aug 8, traded to a fresh cycle low, before rebounding and this has exposed key support at $26.018, May 2 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $30.192, the Aug 26 high. A resumption of gains and a breach of this hurdle would cancel the bearish theme and expose $30.502 next, a Fibonacci retracement.

MNI (LONDON)