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Markets Roundup: Implied Rate Cuts by Yr End Gain Momentum

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures extending session highs again after a decent round of two way flow since the lower than expected JOLTS jobs data.
  • Yield curves broadly steeper but off highs (2s10s now at -50.326 vs. -45.578 high) as the short-end sees a pick-up in selling after implied rate hikes for year end climbed over -71.0bp briefly.
  • At the moment, Fed funds implied hike for May'23 is currently at 11.8bp vs. 17.3bp on the open, Jun'23 +5.4bp vs. +15.9bp earlier cumulative at 4.871%.
  • Projected rate cuts later in the year surged on the post-data gap bid but have scaled back the last few minutes: Sep'23 cumulative currently -30.9 vs. 34.6bp high (-11.0bp on the open) to 4.514%, to -66.8bp vs. -71.5bp high for Dec'23 (-46.0bp on the open) at 4.151.
  • Front month 10Y futures, TYM3 currently trade session high of 116-03 (10Y yield 3.3554% low). For a technical perspective, a continuation higher through 116-06.5 (March 27 high) exposes key resistance at 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and bull trigger.
  • Equities, meanwhile, are trading moderately weaker, S&P Eminis around 4130. at the moment, Industrials, Energy and Materials sectors the top three index laggers. Financials not far behind, however, banks weighing (Zion -7.2%, First Republic -6.71, Key Bank -6.1%).
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