BOC DISCUSSED BOTH A 25BP AND A 50BP CUT AS OPTIONS

BOC'S MACKLEM SAYS HE'S A FAN OF FISCAL GUARDRAILS

TRUDEAU CALLS BOC RATE CUT 'A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION'

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -1.42M TO 422.0M DEC 06 WK

BOC CUTS RATE 50BPS TO 3.25%, SEES GRADUAL APPROACH FROM HERE

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Markets Update: Extending Lows

US TSYS
  • Largely quiet since this morning's hot CPI related sell-off, Treasury futures and stocks have quietly extended respective session lows in late trade.
  • Currently, Mar'24 10Y futures are -1-03 at 109-20 (early Dec'23 level), nearing initial technical support of 109-17 (50.0% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase), 10Y yield marking 4.3104% high (Dec 1 lvl). Treasury curves are bear flattening (2s10s -4.853 -34.727) with short end underperforming as projected rate cut continue to evaporate in light of today's hot inflation measure.
  • Projected rate cut pricing continues to ebb: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -10.6% (-18.3% late Monday) w/ cumulative of -2.6bp at 5.302%; May 2024 at -28.9% vs. -53.0% late Monday w/ cumulative cut of -9.9bp at 5.230%; June 2024 -57.7% vs. -80.3% late Monday w/ cumulative -24.3bp at 5.086%. Fed terminal at 5.3275% in Feb'24.
  • Look ahead: Wednesday dat focus on PPI revisions, Fed speakers Chicago Fed Goolsbee and Fed VC Barr.
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