Markets will closely watch this morning's...>

UK DATA: Markets will closely watch this morning's UK 07:00BST data which will

give the best indication yet of the initial impact the coronavirus had on UK

economic activity. Note that we have already had retail sales data for the

period March 1 - April 4 which showed a -5.1% M/M fall in the headline number

(not far from the Bloomberg consensus of -5.0%.

- This morning we will see the first print of Q1 GDP released (see data team's

6:20 bullet) along with monthly GDP, industrial production, index of services

and trade for the month of March. Consensus looks for March GDP to fall around

8% with most estimates ranging from -11% to -5%.

- Of course for most of Q1, and indeed most of March, the UK was not on full

lockdown, although activity was certainly hit ahead of the formal lockdown which

began March 23. So Q1 data will not be as bad as Q2 (BOE pencil in -3% and -25%

respectively).

- Also worth noting Q4 GDP is currently reported as 0.0%. The ONS could revise

this data today and a small downward revision to -0.1% would mean that the UK

was already in technical recession before the worst of the coronavirus impact.