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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMarkets will closely watch this morning's...>
UK DATA: Markets will closely watch this morning's UK 07:00BST data which will
give the best indication yet of the initial impact the coronavirus had on UK
economic activity. Note that we have already had retail sales data for the
period March 1 - April 4 which showed a -5.1% M/M fall in the headline number
(not far from the Bloomberg consensus of -5.0%.
- This morning we will see the first print of Q1 GDP released (see data team's
6:20 bullet) along with monthly GDP, industrial production, index of services
and trade for the month of March. Consensus looks for March GDP to fall around
8% with most estimates ranging from -11% to -5%.
- Of course for most of Q1, and indeed most of March, the UK was not on full
lockdown, although activity was certainly hit ahead of the formal lockdown which
began March 23. So Q1 data will not be as bad as Q2 (BOE pencil in -3% and -25%
respectively).
- Also worth noting Q4 GDP is currently reported as 0.0%. The ONS could revise
this data today and a small downward revision to -0.1% would mean that the UK
was already in technical recession before the worst of the coronavirus impact.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.