Free Trial
USDCAD TECHS

Key Support Remains Exposed

AUDUSD TECHS

Pullback Extends, But Still Looks Corrective in Nature

US TSYS

FED Remains in Play Post-NFP/ISM Data

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MNI BOE Review - September 2022: 75bp likely in November

  • There has been a huge repricing in terms of both market pricing and analyst expectations following both the September MPC meeting and the government’s fiscal update (“Growth Plan”). Of the analysts that have explicitly updated or reaffirmed their views following the latter, 12/15 (80%) look for a 75bp hike in November while markets at Friday’s close priced around 89bp. Expectations for the terminal rate among those same analysts saw a median of 4.00%, with 80% of analysts expecting a terminal rate in the 3.50-4.25% range. This is considerably lower than the 5.50% terminal rate markets were pricing.
  • We discuss whether the government's fiscal plan is stimulatory enough for market pricing and for a 75bp hike next meeting. We do expect 75bp in November, but think STIR market moved are a bit exacerbated (but not necessarily gilt or GBP moves).
  • We still think the BOE should have waited until November to announce active gilt sales to give the market time to digest the new remit and assess market conditions.
  • there is a small (but non-negligible chance) that this week’s scheduled green gilt syndication gets postponed again if the gilt market continues to see sharp moves.
For the full document including over 20 sellside reviews see:

MNI BoE Review - Sep22.pdf

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to

MarketNews.com

MNI is the leading provider

of news and intelligence specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical insight for market professionals and those who want to make informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence moves markets.

Our credibility

for delivering mission-critical information has been built over three decades. The quality and experience of MNI's team of analysts and reporters across America, Asia and Europe truly sets us apart. Our Markets team includes former fixed-income specialists, currency traders, economists and strategists, who are able to combine expertise on macro economics, financial markets, and political risk to give a comprehensive and holistic insight on global markets.