MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Apr 17

• Slovakia, the EU, the Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the EFSF all look to issue next week. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E45.4bln, up from E25.2bln this week.
• Next week sees redemptions totaling E41.5bln (E5.0bln of a formerly 10-year RFGB, E20.5bln of a German ILB, E6.2bln of a formerly 3-year RAGB and E9.8bln of a BTP Italia).
• Coupons for the week total E4.1bln, of which E2.1bln are German and E0.7bln Portuguese.
• With estimated gross nominal issuance of E45.4bln in the week, we look for net flows to be almost flat at negative E0.2bln in the week, down from E4.9bln this week.

EZ230417.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EFSF has issued an RFP for a syndicated transaction. We pencil in a dual-tranche transaction for Monday or Tuesday with a similar total E6bln size as was seen in January.
• Germany will hold investor meetings starting on Tuesday to present its Green Bond presentation (that is due for release on Monday 17 April). We would expect a syndicated transaction to follow, potentially as early as Wednesday. We pencil in a transaction size of E4-5bln. Germany’s 2023 funding plan included two green syndications this year: a 10-year transaction and a longer-maturity transaction. The next Green auction is not due to be held until 7 June.
• Slovakia will kick off issuance auctions for the week on Monday with 2/10/12/30-year SlovGBs on offer: the 0.25% May-25 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017158), the 4.00% Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
• Monday will also see an EU-bond auction with up to E2bln of each of the 1.625% Dec-29 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K7MW2) and the 2.75% Feb-33 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DW8) on offer.
• Tuesday will see the Netherlands come to the market to issue E1-2bln of the 0% Jan-52 DSL (ISIN: NL0015614579).
• Tuesday will also see Finland come to the market with 5/25-year RFGBs on offer: up to E500mln of the 0.50% Sep-28 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000348727) and up to E1.0bln of the 1.375% Apr-47 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000242870).
• On Wednesday, Greece will look to hold a GGB auction. The PDMA announced that the Q2 GGB auctions are complementary to HR 2023 funding program, aiming at facilitating the GGBs’ secondary market operation. The PDMA “will announce its final decision regarding (i) the execution of each scheduled auction (ii) ISIN(s) to be auctioned and (iii) auctioned amount, one day before the auction date” (i.e. on Tuesday).
• On Wednesday, Germany will come to the market to sell E4bln of the 10-year 2.30% Feb-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z007).
• On Thursday Spain will come to the market to sell the on-the-run 7-year 0.80% Jul-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K53), the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L52) and the 25-year 2.70% Oct-48 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012B47). The auction size will be confirmed on Monday.
• Also Thursday, France will look to hold a MT OAT auction for E10.0-11.5bln. On offer will be the 3-year 2.50% Sep-26 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FYQ4), the new 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: TBC) and the 0% Nov-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013451507).
• France will return to the market later on Thursday to hold an IL OAT auction with E1.25-1.75bln on offer. AFT looks to sell the 0.10% Mar-28 OATi (ISIN: FR0013238268), the 0.10% Jul-38 Green OATei (ISIN: FR001400AQH0) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
• On Friday, Italy will come to the market. We expect a reopening of the 3.40% Mar-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005534281) alongside a BTPei.