MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C May 22

• The EU, Germany, Italy and potentially Portugal all look to issue in the W/C 22 May. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E20.5bln from announced operations, down from E33.1bln this week.
• Next week sees institutional redemptions of E47.6bln (E5.4bln of institutional funds held in a formerly 6-year BTP Italia, E5.0bln of a formerly 10-year EFSF-bond and E36.8bln of a formerly 10-year OAT).
• Coupons for the week total E11.8bln (E10.4b Spanish and E0.9bln Italian).
• With estimated gross nominal issuance of E20.5bln in the week, we look for net flows of negative E42.1bln in the week versus negative E4.9bln this week.

EZ230522.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU will kick off auctions on Monday with up to E5bln of 5/11-year EU-bonds on offer: Up to E2.5bln each of the 0% Oct-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3KWCF4) and the 3.25% Jul-34 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4D41).
• Belgium’s auction that was scheduled for Monday 22 May has been cancelled due to the 20-year 3.45% Jun-43 OLO syndication that was held on Tuesday 9 May.
• The Netherlands will look to kick off Tuesday’s auctions, with E2.0-2.5bln of the 5-year 0.75% Jul-28 DSL (ISIN: NL0012818504) on offer.
• Later on Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E6bln of the 2.80% Jun-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22015).
• Germany will return to the market on Wednesday to hold a 15-year Bund auction: E1.5bln of the 1.00% May-38 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102598) will be on offer alongside E1.0bln of the 4.75% Jul-40 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135366).
• On Thursday, Italy will come to the market to hold a BTP-ST/BTPei auction. We pencil in a reopening of the 3.40% Mar25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005534281) alongside either the 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803) or the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994).