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MEXICO: 20.00 Level Caps USDMXN Rally, For Now

MEXICO
  • Another sharp bout of peso weakness on Thursday in the aftermath of the US data saw USDMXN trade as high as 19.9570, with the well-known domestic risks continuing to weigh on the local currency. Ahead of today’s US PCE data and month-end, the pair has drifted a little lower and consolidates back below 19.80, with the psychological 20.00 level capping gains for now.
  • Notably, XP Investments have downgraded their Mexican peso forecast, expecting USDMXN to end the year at 20.50, compared to a prior 20.00 estimate. The firm cited risks include an “economic downturn, with fiscal consequences, rating actions and USMCA violations that could put the deal into risk in 2026”
  • July Net Outstanding Loans data is scheduled at 1600BST/1100ET and Public Balance figures may also be released. Elsewhere, President AMLO’s daily press briefing will continue to garner attention as the progress of his administration’s judicial reform remains in focus.
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