Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls on Mild Weather

Front month TTF has fallen to the lowest since end-July weighed on by an upward revision in temperature forecasts for Europe, high stocks with below-normal withdrawal rates and a recovery in Norwegian pipeline flows.

• TTF MAR 24 down -4.4% at 25.94€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -3.4% at 26.65€/MWh
• The temperature forecast for NW and central Europe has turned warmer with above normal expected throughout most of the two week forecast period although could ease back closer to normal from around Feb 20.
• European natural gas storage levels are up near the previous five year range highs at 67.02% full on Feb 10 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 52.3% amid low withdrawal rates.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated up to 347.2mcm/d and back in line with the average seen during Jan after a drop last week.
• European LNG sendout was at 324mcm/d on Feb 10 compared to an average of 341mcm/d over the previous week.
• Sendout at France’s Fos Cavaou and Fos Tonkin LNG terminals has been reduced due to strike action according to Elengy.
• The fundamental gas balance is consistent with TTF & JKM prices around 20% higher than current levels at around 12$/mmbtu and with more volatility ahead according to Timera Energy global gas modelling.
• Austria is seeking to take radical steps to reduce it continued reliance on Russian gas imports according to Reuters, citing the country’s Energy Minister.