Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Pulls Back

TTF front month falls again towards a low of 24€/MWh as mild weather suggests limited heating demand while unplanned outages at Norway’s gas facilities ended.

• TTF MAR 24 down -2.4% at 24.22€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.1% at 24.94€/MWh
• The European weather forecast suggests a further extension of the mild weather with above normal now expected until the end of the month and with little sign of cold in the coming two week outlook.
• Industrial demand for natural gas in NW Europe has started to show signs of recovery although from very depressed levels seen last year according to JP Morgan.
• Net European gas storage withdrawals remain below normal as overall storage holds up at the previous five year range highs at 65.43% full on Feb 17 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 49.2%.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 339.8mcm/d with flows limited by a planned capacity reduction at Karsto.
• European LNG sendout was at 308mcm/d on Feb 17 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 333mcm/d seen over the previous week.
• Equinor and Indian fertiliser and Indian petchem company Deepak have assigned a 15-year agreement to supply LNG, with deliveries commencing in 2026, according to a press-release.
• The Energos Power LNG – the future FSRU for the Mukran LNG terminal - tanker is currently pausing near Denmark and waiting for orders after it had gone into the Port of Rotterdam, though not to the Gate LNG terminal, ICIS LNG Edge data showed.
• US President Joe Biden is facing pushback in his own Democrat party over his pause on approving new LNG projects.
• Europe will be well supplied with US LNG despite the project pause according to US Secretary of State Amos Hochstein speaking with Alarabiya News over the weekend.
• Qatar will announce additional LNG contracts with Asian and European buyers, Saad Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, said.
• China is expected to receive 17 cargoes totalling 1.01m mt in the seven days to Feb. 25, according to OilChem.
• Red Sea shipping disruptions would limit the arrival of products to customers in the long-term and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are not ideal due to added cost and length of journeys, QatarEnergie Chief Saad al-Kaabi said.
• Chevron announced on Sunday the second phase of the expansion of Israel’s Tamar natural gas field which is expected to ramp up the field’s gas production capacity to 1.6bcf/d from 1.6bcf/d currently.
• Ukraine’s GTSOU is planning to start purchasing natural as for its own needs both on the Ukrainian Energy Exchange and the Ukrainian electronic tender system Prozorro starting in March, with volumes above those seen in 2023, GTSOU’s commercial director said.