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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rebounds Slightly

NATURAL GAS

TTF futures have rebounded slightly today after briefly falling negative on the day due to the extension of the unplanned outage at the Karsto processing facility in Norway. Upside is limited amid low heating demand due to mild weather, high storage levels and sufficient supplies.

    • TTF MAR 24 up 0.8% at 23.9€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1% at 24.6€/MWh
  • Above normal temperatures are expected to continue across much of Europe throughout February and potentially into the start of March.
  • Net European gas storage is above the previous five year range highs at 65.32% full on Feb 18 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 49.0%.
  • EU net withdrawal rates fell to the lowest this year at just 1,232TWh/d on Feb 18 according to the latest GIE data.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today unchanged at 339.5mcm/d amid a planned capacity reduction at Karsto until late April. Karsto also has an unplanned outage with 12.5mcm/d unavailable until 21 Feb.
  • European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 328mcm/d on Feb 18 according to Bloomberg compared to flows of around 420mcm/d this time last year.
  • Italy’s OLT Offshore plans to start maintenance at its Toscana FSRU LNG terminal on March 1, one month ahead of its previous plans.
  • The Celsius Giza LNG vessel loaded from the Freeport terminal and was headed to the Zeebrugge terminal for 24 February arrival but has turned back west in the Atlantic according to ship tracking data.
  • The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased by 35% over the last week to 3.17mn tons as of 18 February, according to Bloomberg estimates.
  • Global weekly LNG imports increased by 12% to 8.1mn tons during 12-18 February, driven by higher imports from Japan, South Korea and Northwest Europe according to BNEF.
  • Russia is potentially aiming to produce 110mn tons of LNG by 2030 vs current levels of 33mn tons according to Deputy PM Alexander Novak.
  • Denmark's largest natural gas field Tyra is on track to restart production by the end of March, according to BlueNord on Tuesday.
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