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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rises on Supply Risks

NATURAL GAS

European TTF prices have opened higher today as potential supply disruptions from the conflict in Israel offer upside against bearish short-term fundamentals from high inventories and mild weather. The resumption of LNG deliveries from Egypt looks unlikely after the halt to Egypt’s gas imports from Israel according to their cabinet yesterday.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 3.6% at 52.35€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 2.8% at 56.3€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2.1% at 53.63€/MWh
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were holding steady on Friday at 231k.
  • Egyptian natural gas imports have halted on Sunday, the cabinet said, cited by Bloomberg, from 800mcf/d previously, leading to power cuts in the country.
  • The latest weather forecasts show above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe in the coming week but drifting back towards normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 311.7mcm/d after dipping slightly over the weekend. Outages are expected to total around 14mcm/d in the coming few days according to Gassco data.
  • End of season injections into European natural gas storage continue to bring levels up to 98.87% full on 28 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
  • Equinor and RWE have signed a new supply contract the for delivery of 10-15TWh, or 1-1.5bcm, of natural gas per year from now until 2028, according to Equinor.
  • Workers at Chevron’s two LNG facilities in Australia have endorsed the new del on pay and conditions according to the Offshore Alliance.
  • Total European LNG sendout was at 328mcm/d on 28 Oct having averaged around 350mcm/d in the previous week.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
    • JKM Nov 23 down -0.3% at 18.26$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Nov 23 down -0.5$/mmbtu at 2.08$/mmbtu
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