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POWER: Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE, Nordic March Power Track Weekly Losses

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French March power is tracking a weekly net decline of above 14%, while the German equivalent is tracking an increase of almost 9%. A sharp pullback in EU gas prices has weighed on power markets, while forecasts for milder weather are limiting heating demand expectations. Nordic March power is tracking a weekly net loss of almost % due to milder weather, improved hydro conditions and losses in neighbouring markets. 

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 unchanged at 41.25 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 2.4% at 79.84 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.2% at 99 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 78.82 EUR/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2.7% at 49.995 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets.  Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances are tracking a weekly net decline of just above 4%%, weighed on by forecasts for milder weather and sharp losses in EU gas prices. EUAs have reversed earlier losses to trade higher on Thursday, diverging from EU gas, with focus on low renewables output.
  • EU GHG emissions declined by 0.6% on the year to 767mn tons in the third quarter of 2024, with top economies lowering emissions while growing the GDP.
  • The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared lower at €75.84/ton CO2e, compared with €80.71/ton CO2e in the previous auction a week ago
  • Governments are expected to inch closer to a global carbon price with discussions expected to continue at the next UN’s IMO meeting on 17-21 February.
  • The IEA estimates that the EU’s power demand to rise by 1.7% per year in 2025-2027, with demand to rise back to 2021 levels by 2027.
  • EnBW is inaugurating the 300MW Marbach 4 grid stabilisation plant in southern Germany.
  • Electrabel’s 445MW Doel 1 nuclear reactor is permanently shutting down on Friday evening.
  • Vattenfall is unlikely to decide on new nuclear power investments before 2029, with the company evaluating options for large-scale and SMRs at Ringhals. 
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French March power is tracking a weekly net decline of above 14%, while the German equivalent is tracking an increase of almost 9%. A sharp pullback in EU gas prices has weighed on power markets, while forecasts for milder weather are limiting heating demand expectations. Nordic March power is tracking a weekly net loss of almost % due to milder weather, improved hydro conditions and losses in neighbouring markets. 

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 unchanged at 41.25 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 2.4% at 79.84 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.2% at 99 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 78.82 EUR/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 2.7% at 49.995 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets.  Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances are tracking a weekly net decline of just above 4%%, weighed on by forecasts for milder weather and sharp losses in EU gas prices. EUAs have reversed earlier losses to trade higher on Thursday, diverging from EU gas, with focus on low renewables output.
  • EU GHG emissions declined by 0.6% on the year to 767mn tons in the third quarter of 2024, with top economies lowering emissions while growing the GDP.
  • The latest weekly German EUA CAP3 auction cleared lower at €75.84/ton CO2e, compared with €80.71/ton CO2e in the previous auction a week ago
  • Governments are expected to inch closer to a global carbon price with discussions expected to continue at the next UN’s IMO meeting on 17-21 February.
  • The IEA estimates that the EU’s power demand to rise by 1.7% per year in 2025-2027, with demand to rise back to 2021 levels by 2027.
  • EnBW is inaugurating the 300MW Marbach 4 grid stabilisation plant in southern Germany.
  • Electrabel’s 445MW Doel 1 nuclear reactor is permanently shutting down on Friday evening.
  • Vattenfall is unlikely to decide on new nuclear power investments before 2029, with the company evaluating options for large-scale and SMRs at Ringhals.