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MIDEAST: Israeli Strikes On Tehran Seen As Lower Risk, Eyes Now On Iran Response

MIDEAST

Israeli missile strikes on Iranian military targets in and around Tehran on the night of 26 October are seen as being on the less-escalatory end of the spectrum of potential responses to Iran's ballistic missile barrage launched against Israel on 1 October. Given the prospect of strikes on oil facilities or even nuclear sites, the striking of military targets - including a plant that manufactures parts of Iran's long-range ballistic missiles - has been viewed as an attack that may not draw a substantial response from Iran despite the deaths of a number of military personnel and civilians. 

  • In the aftermath of the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the attack should not be "exaggerated or downplayed", while President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran would "give an appropriate response". Speaking on 28 Oct, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei echoed this, saying that Iran "will use all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response".
  • The relatively limited strikes can also be seen in the context of the efforts to revive indirect talks between Israel and Iranian-backed Hamas on a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal. Representatives from Israel, the US, Egypt and Qatar met in Doha on 27 October in an effort to push towards an end to the conflict in Gaza. The Jerusalem Post reports on Egypt's presentation of a two-day ceasefire that would see four Israeli hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. The two-day ceasefire would mark a jumping-off point for wider ceasefire negotiations to take place.  
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Israeli missile strikes on Iranian military targets in and around Tehran on the night of 26 October are seen as being on the less-escalatory end of the spectrum of potential responses to Iran's ballistic missile barrage launched against Israel on 1 October. Given the prospect of strikes on oil facilities or even nuclear sites, the striking of military targets - including a plant that manufactures parts of Iran's long-range ballistic missiles - has been viewed as an attack that may not draw a substantial response from Iran despite the deaths of a number of military personnel and civilians. 

  • In the aftermath of the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the attack should not be "exaggerated or downplayed", while President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran would "give an appropriate response". Speaking on 28 Oct, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei echoed this, saying that Iran "will use all available tools to deliver a definite and effective response".
  • The relatively limited strikes can also be seen in the context of the efforts to revive indirect talks between Israel and Iranian-backed Hamas on a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages deal. Representatives from Israel, the US, Egypt and Qatar met in Doha on 27 October in an effort to push towards an end to the conflict in Gaza. The Jerusalem Post reports on Egypt's presentation of a two-day ceasefire that would see four Israeli hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners. The two-day ceasefire would mark a jumping-off point for wider ceasefire negotiations to take place.