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Minor Retracement Of Friday's Sell-Off

CANADA
  • Contrary to the twist steepening in the US, GoCs have rallied across the curve from Friday’s close.
  • The short end has marginally underperformed, with 2YY -0.5bps at 1.346%, as it remains relatively pinned by short-term rate expectations, whilst the belly to long end is down -1-1.5bps.
  • BAX futures trade 1-3 ticks above Friday’s close through the whites and reds but this is a small move after falling 12.5 ticks on Friday with payrolls. This leaves the curve some 10-15bps higher than following the BoC and Fed's Jan decisions.
  • The next significant local driver is likely BoC’s Macklem speaking on Wed. His speech is titled “The role of productivity in fostering non-inflationary growth”, having noted at last week’s testimony that the rate path will hinge on expected productivity gains.


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