MNI 5 THINGS. Australia Qtrly Wage Price Index Below Forecasts

By Lachlan Colquhoun

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's Wage Price Index for the fourth quarter of 2018

was released Wednesday. These are five factors of note from the Australian

Bureau of Statistics data release.

--Q4 data falls short of forecasts. 

Wages increased 0.5% in Q4, 2018 against consensus forecasts of a seasonally

adjusted 0.6% rise. Explanatory notes from the ABS made the point that the data

was rounded to one decimal place, and the data had been rounded down and not up.

The actual figure, therefore, may have been closer to the 0.6% expectation than

was published.

Yearly result more encouraging. 

Annualised data showed a 2.3% increase in wages, the same in Q3 result and

better than the 2.1% posted in the first two quarters of 2018. With inflation

running at 1.8%, the data plays into the Reserve Bank of Australia's more

positive outlook, which is for a slow improvement in wages to flow through to

higher inflation. The 2.3% figure, however, does fall short of the RBA's own Q4

forecast for a rise of 2.4%, continuing a pattern of Bank overestimates.

All eyes on Labour Force data tomorrow. 

     The ABS releases Labour Force data Thursday, and combined with todays' Wage

Price Index will give a clearer indication of how the economy is tracking.

Unemployment is currently at 5.0%, a decade low, and the RBA expects it to

remain stable before falling again in 2020.

Private Sector wages begin to catch up. 

Wages in the public sector grew an annualised 2.5% in the December quarter

against a 2.3% rise in the private sector. However, Q4 growth for both sectors

was 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms. The 2.3% rise for private sector wages is

the highest in four years.

Media and telco workers following the pack. 

In terms of industry sectors, wages for those in Information, Media and

Telecommunication services were the lowest with growth of only 1.6%, while those

employed in the energy, water, waste services and health care enjoyed growth of

2.8%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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