MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Dwelling Approvals Up; Trend Positive

--House Approvals Post Biggest M/M Rise Since Dec 2015

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Dwelling approvals in Australia rose in June for the first

time in three months, and at the fastest rate since January, pushing trend rate

back in to positive.

     The data alleviates concern about dwelling construction being a detraction

to GDP growth sooner than previously expected and the Reserve Bank might

continue with the narrative that the dwelling investment pipeline should

continue to support a high level of dwelling investment for some time yet. 

     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Tuesday showed

dwelling approvals rose 6.4% m/m in June, beating MNI median forecast for a 1.0%

m/m rise and well outside the range predicted by economists.

     The latest rise was due to a 5.0% m/m increase in house approvals, the

biggest rise since December 2015. Multi-units approvals rose for the second

straight month, up 7.2% m/m compared with a 4.2% rise in May. 

     The June increase pushed trend approvals into positive for the first time

since November last year, up 0.1% m/m versus a downwardly revised 0.7% fall in

May.

     In value terms, total buildings approved fell for the fourth straight

month, down 1.2% m/m in June compared with a 0.8% fall in May. The value of

residential building approved rose 1.8% while the value of non-residential fell

7.0%.

     From building approvals data for June  published by the Australian Bureau

of Statistics on Tuesday:

                                              June                           May

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                              (M/M% unless stated;          (M/M% unless stated;

                              seasonally adjusted)          seasonally adjusted)

Dwelling Units

Approved                                      +6.4       -2.5(revised from -3.2)

MNI Median                     +1.0 (-3.0 to +3.0)

Dwelling Units

Approved (Trend)                              +0.1      -0.7 (revised from -0.5)

Dwelling Units

Approved Y/Y                                  +1.6    +3.1(last month's release)

Private Houses                                +5.0                          -7.4

Private Units

Excluding Houses                              +7.2                          +4.2

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

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