MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

     AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) 55-DMA & 98.015 Levels Key 

*RES 4: 98.015 - Alternating daily support resistance 

*RES 3: 97.982 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 97.974 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 97.955 - High Dec 15

*PRICE: 97.945 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.875 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: 97.836 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 97.790 - Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 97.755 - Low Feb 5

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips ensures that focus remains on layers of

resistance 97.955-98.015 resistance with key MAs and the daily bear channel top

off June highs situated in this region. Bulls need a close above 98.015 to shift

initial focus to 98.111-135 where the 100-WMA and Nov highs are noted. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

97.790 to return initial focus to tests of 2018 lows (97.690).

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA 

*RES 4: 97.4764 - 100-WMA

*RES 3: 97.3850 - 2018 High Jan 8

*RES 2: 97.3238 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: 97.3165 - 55-WMA

*PRICE: 97.2950 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.2800 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support

*SUP 2: 97.2450 - Hourly support Mar 1

*SUP 3: 97.1950 - Low Feb 28

*SUP 4: 97.1750 - Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards 97.175.

Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to 97.5200 Dec

highs and above 97.3850 2018 highs to confirm. Bears still need a close below

97.1750 to shift focus back to 97.0037-0450 where 2018 lows and the LT bull

channel base are noted.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 121-01+ Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-28+ 55-DMA

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-28+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*PRICE: 120-17+ @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 120-14  High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 120-08+ 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 120-00  Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort as M18 gains traction above the 21-DMA with

immediate focus now on 120-28+/121-01+ where the bear channel top is noted.

Bulls now need a close above 121-01+ to shift initial focus to 121-28+/122-02

where the 55-DMA is located. Support layers emerging adds to bullish confidence

with bears now needing a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

120-00 to pressure 119-14 Feb lows.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.786 Targets 2.609-648

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.875 - High Mar 1 

*RES 1: 2.824 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.814 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.758 - Low July 2 

*SUP 3: 2.648 - Low Feb 6 

*SUP 4: 2.641 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs was less

than ideal for bulls who were focused on 3.041 2014. Focus has now returned to

the 2.758 support as the yield trades below the daily bull channel base and

21-DMA (2.851). Bears now look for a close below 2.786 to end bullish hopes and

shift focus back to 2.609-648 where the 55-DMA (2.641) is noted. Bulls now need

a close above 2.875 to gain breathing room.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) Above 151.05 To Target 151.19-51 

*RES 4: 151.51 - 2017 High Sept

*RES 3: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22

*RES 2: 151.16 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 151.05 - 2018 High Feb 27

*PRICE: 151.01 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.98 - Hourly support Mar 1 

*SUP 2: 150.85 - High Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: 150.82 - Low Feb 23 

*SUP 4: 150.71 - Repeated daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 and 3mth highs lacked follow through & when combined

with daily momentum divergence and O/B studies in general is a concern for

bulls. Bears still need a close below 150.82 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below the 200-DMA (150.60) now to confirm breaks of key DMAs and to

hint at a move back to 2018 lows. Bulls now need a close above 151.05 to confirm

focus on 151.19-51.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]