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Ending The Week On A Soft Note


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Stronger, But Still Vulnerable


SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
AUSSIE TECHS: Channel Break Provides Bulls Hope
*RES 4: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 3: $0.7690 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7687 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7654 - High Dec 5
*PRICE: $0.7631 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13 
*SUP 2: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12 
*SUP 3: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12 
*SUP 4: $0.7530 - Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low now sees the pair trading above
the channel top ($0.7598) and a close above needed to shift focus to layers of
resistance $0.7653-0.7803 where key DMAs are situated. A close above the 100-DMA
($0.7803) is needed to shift overall focus back to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a
close above the 200-DMA to add support to their case. The $0.7580 level is key
support with bears needing a close below to retain focus on $0.7500.
KIWI TECHS: Focus Back on Key $0.7050 Resistance
*RES 4: $0.7200 - High Oct 17 
*RES 3: $0.7117 - Low Oct 18 now resistance 
*RES 2: $0.7102 - 200-DMA 
*RES 1: $0.7050 - Low Oct 9 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7020 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6979 - Monthly High Nov 9 now support
*SUP 2: $0.6961 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.6923 - Hourly support Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.6901 - Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of last week's low has resulted in a likely
close above the 55-DMA with immediate focus shifting to the $0.7050 resistance.
Bulls need a close above $0.7050 to target $0.7200-25 although 100 ($0.7111) &
200 ($0.7102) DMAs may slow the move. Bears now look for a close below the
55-DMA to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.6901 to reconfirm focus on
2017 lows and the weekly bear channel base ($0.6709).
*RES 4: NZ$1.1045 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.1027 - Hourly resistance Dec 6
*RES 2: NZ$1.0990 - High Dec 11
*RES 1: NZ$1.0927 - Hourly resistance Dec 11
*PRICE: NZ$1.0872 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0858 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0826 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0798 - Low Aug 16
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0762 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through in past week's took its toll
with a close below key supports that shifted focus to NZ$1.0720-1.0826 where key
WMAs and the 200-DMA are noted. Overall bears need a close below the
100-WMA(NZ$1.0720) to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 2017 lows
(NZ$1.0320). Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0927 to ease bearish pressure and
above NZ$1.1045 to initially target NZ$1.1139.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Layers Of Resistance Y86.19-87.19 Key
*RES 4: Y86.92 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 3: Y86.75 - 55-DMA 
*RES 2: Y86.58 - High Nov 15 
*RES 1: Y86.19 - High Dec 5
*PRICE: Y85.90 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y85.52 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 now support
*SUP 2: Y85.05 - Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*SUP 3: Y84.65 - Low Nov 30
*SUP 4: Y84.33 - Monthly Low Nov 27
*COMMENTARY: The bounce Monday is less than ideal for bears given the lack of
follow through and bounce from last week's low. Bulls need a close above Y86.19
to confirm a break of the 200-DMA, easing bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA
(Y87.13) to shift focus to Y87.67-89.06. The Y85.05-52 support region is now key
with bears needing a close below Y85.05 to reconfirm focus on Y83.49-84.33 where
the bear channel base (Y83.49) is noted.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5392 Support Remains Key 
*RES 4: A$1.5614 - Hourly resistance Dec 12a
*RES 3: A$1.5587 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13
*RES 1: A$1.5497 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance
*PRICE: A$1.5486 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5392 - Monthly High Oct 26 now support 
*SUP 2: A$1.5297 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: A$1.5285 - Daily Bull channel base 
*SUP 4: A$1.5195 - Low Nov 13
*COMMENTARY: Since closing below the 21-DMA Tuesday the pair has remained heavy
with immediate focus now on the A$1.5392 support. Bears need a close below to
confirm a shift in initial focus to the 55-DMA and bull channel base. Below the
channel base is needed to hint at deeper sell-off with below A$1.5079 to target
the 200-DMA (A$1.4855). Bulls now need a close above A$1.5559 to ease immediate
bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to return focus to A$1.5695-1.5774.
US DOLLAR-INDEX: Pressuring 100-DMA
*RES 4: 94.650 - High Nov 10 
*RES 3: 94.219 - High Dec 12 
*RES 2: 94.107 - High Dec 13 
*RES 1: 93.666 - Low Dec 11 now resistance
*PRICE: 93.468 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 93.331 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 4: 92.878 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower leaves the index looking heavy and pressuring
the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below 93.488 to ease bullish pressure and
below 93.035 to shift pressure back to 92.496-878 where Nov lows and the bull
channel base are situated. Correcting O/B studies are now weighing. Bulls now
need a close above 93.666 to gain breathing room and above 94.219 to reconfirm a
bullish bias targeting 95.167-464.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: $1.1848 High Dec 6
*PRICE: $1.1820 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1779 Hourly breakout level Dec 13 
*SUP 2: $1.1729 Low Dec 13 
*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21 
*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The failure by bears to manage a break of the key $1.1690 support
sees the pair correcting higher with bulls now looking for a close above the
21-DMA ($1.1814) to add support to the case for a move back to $1.1940-61 and
above $1.1884 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for further topside.
Bears now need a close below $1.1779 to ease immediate bullish pressure.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.57
*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6, LT TL off 2015 High 
*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9 
*RES 2: Y113.74 High Dec 12 
*RES 1: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13
*PRICE: Y112.52 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7a now support 
*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6 
*SUP 3: Y111.65 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation has seen the pair head lower to taking
out key supports. Bears need a close below to shift focus back to Y110.83-111.67
where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Initial resistance is noted at
Y113.30 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure whereas a
close above Y114.06 is now needed to reconfirm a bullish bias that initially
targets Y114.72 where the LT TL off 2015 highs is found.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.47-88 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25
*RES 3: Y133.88 High Dec 11
*RES 2: Y133.47 Hourly resistance Dec 12
*RES 1: Y133.17 Hourly resistance Dec 13
*PRICE: Y132.99 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7 
*SUP 2: Y132.24 Low Dec 6 
*SUP 3: Y132.13 Daily Bull channel base off Aug Low 
*SUP 4: Y131.79 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair is looking a little heavy having failed to trouble 2017
highs. The Y133.47 resistance is key today with bulls needing a close above to
ease renewed bearish pressure and return focus to the break of Y133.88 needed to
confirm initial focus on 2017 highs. The Y131.71-132.24 region where the 100-DMA
and bull channel base are situated remains key support. Bears need a close below
Y131.71 to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA with below Y131.21 confirming.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1269.9-1289.5
*RES 4: $1285.1 - Daily Bear channel top 
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1 
*RES 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance
*PRICE: $1255.1 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13 
*SUP 2: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13 
*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12 
*SUP 4: $1227.8 - Low July 17
*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise further on recent fresh 6mth lows
with the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Correcting O/S daily studies
add support to the case for a move back to layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5
where DMAs and bear channel top are noted. The $1235.9 support is now key with
bears needing a close below to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on the channel
base ($1208.4).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: