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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
14 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Channel Break Provides Bulls Hope
*RES 4: $0.7730 - High Nov 2
*RES 3: $0.7690 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7687 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7654 - High Dec 5
*PRICE: $0.7631 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7596 - Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 2: $0.7580 - Hourly breakout level Dec 12
*SUP 3: $0.7543 - Hourly support Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.7530 - Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low now sees the pair trading above
the channel top ($0.7598) and a close above needed to shift focus to layers of
resistance $0.7653-0.7803 where key DMAs are situated. A close above the 100-DMA
($0.7803) is needed to shift overall focus back to 2017 highs. Bulls look for a
close above the 200-DMA to add support to their case. The $0.7580 level is key
support with bears needing a close below to retain focus on $0.7500.
KIWI TECHS: Focus Back on Key $0.7050 Resistance
*RES 4: $0.7200 - High Oct 17
*RES 3: $0.7117 - Low Oct 18 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7102 - 200-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7050 - Low Oct 9 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7020 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.6979 - Monthly High Nov 9 now support
*SUP 2: $0.6961 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: $0.6923 - Hourly support Dec 12
*SUP 4: $0.6901 - Low Dec 12
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of last week's low has resulted in a likely
close above the 55-DMA with immediate focus shifting to the $0.7050 resistance.
Bulls need a close above $0.7050 to target $0.7200-25 although 100 ($0.7111) &
200 ($0.7102) DMAs may slow the move. Bears now look for a close below the
55-DMA to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.6901 to reconfirm focus on
2017 lows and the weekly bear channel base ($0.6709).
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-WMA Key Support
*RES 4: NZ$1.1045 - Low Dec 5 now resistance
*RES 3: NZ$1.1027 - Hourly resistance Dec 6
*RES 2: NZ$1.0990 - High Dec 11
*RES 1: NZ$1.0927 - Hourly resistance Dec 11
*PRICE: NZ$1.0872 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0858 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0826 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0798 - Low Aug 16
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0762 - 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through in past week's took its toll
with a close below key supports that shifted focus to NZ$1.0720-1.0826 where key
WMAs and the 200-DMA are noted. Overall bears need a close below the
100-WMA(NZ$1.0720) to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 2017 lows
(NZ$1.0320). Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0927 to ease bearish pressure and
above NZ$1.1045 to initially target NZ$1.1139.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Layers Of Resistance Y86.19-87.19 Key
*RES 4: Y86.92 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: Y86.75 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: Y86.58 - High Nov 15
*RES 1: Y86.19 - High Dec 5
*PRICE: Y85.90 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y85.52 - Hourly resistance Dec 12 now support
*SUP 2: Y85.05 - Hourly resistance Dec 8 now support
*SUP 3: Y84.65 - Low Nov 30
*SUP 4: Y84.33 - Monthly Low Nov 27
*COMMENTARY: The bounce Monday is less than ideal for bears given the lack of
follow through and bounce from last week's low. Bulls need a close above Y86.19
to confirm a break of the 200-DMA, easing bearish pressure and above the 100-DMA
(Y87.13) to shift focus to Y87.67-89.06. The Y85.05-52 support region is now key
with bears needing a close below Y85.05 to reconfirm focus on Y83.49-84.33 where
the bear channel base (Y83.49) is noted.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5392 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: A$1.5614 - Hourly resistance Dec 12a
*RES 3: A$1.5587 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: A$1.5559 - High Dec 13
*RES 1: A$1.5497 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance
*PRICE: A$1.5486 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5392 - Monthly High Oct 26 now support
*SUP 2: A$1.5297 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: A$1.5285 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: A$1.5195 - Low Nov 13
*COMMENTARY: Since closing below the 21-DMA Tuesday the pair has remained heavy
with immediate focus now on the A$1.5392 support. Bears need a close below to
confirm a shift in initial focus to the 55-DMA and bull channel base. Below the
channel base is needed to hint at deeper sell-off with below A$1.5079 to target
the 200-DMA (A$1.4855). Bulls now need a close above A$1.5559 to ease immediate
bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to return focus to A$1.5695-1.5774.
US DOLLAR-INDEX: Pressuring 100-DMA
*RES 4: 94.650 - High Nov 10
*RES 3: 94.219 - High Dec 12
*RES 2: 94.107 - High Dec 13
*RES 1: 93.666 - Low Dec 11 now resistance
*PRICE: 93.468 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 93.331 - 100-DMA
*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: 93.035 - Low Dec 5
*SUP 4: 92.878 - Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower leaves the index looking heavy and pressuring
the 100-DMA. Bears look for a close below 93.488 to ease bullish pressure and
below 93.035 to shift pressure back to 92.496-878 where Nov lows and the bull
channel base are situated. Correcting O/B studies are now weighing. Bulls now
need a close above 93.666 to gain breathing room and above 94.219 to reconfirm a
bullish bias targeting 95.167-464.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $1.1961 High Nov 27
*RES 3: $1.1940 High Dec 1
*RES 2: $1.1884 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*RES 1: $1.1848 High Dec 6
*PRICE: $1.1820 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1779 Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 2: $1.1729 Low Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1.1713 Low Nov 21
*SUP 4: $1.1690 High Nov 3 now support
*COMMENTARY: The failure by bears to manage a break of the key $1.1690 support
sees the pair correcting higher with bulls now looking for a close above the
21-DMA ($1.1814) to add support to the case for a move back to $1.1940-61 and
above $1.1884 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for further topside.
Bears now need a close below $1.1779 to ease immediate bullish pressure.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.57
*RES 4: Y114.72 High Nov 6, LT TL off 2015 High
*RES 3: Y114.07 High Nov 9
*RES 2: Y113.74 High Dec 12
*RES 1: Y113.30 Hourly resistance Dec 13
*PRICE: Y112.52 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.33 Hourly resistance Dec 7a now support
*SUP 2: Y111.98 Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: Y111.65 200-DMA
*SUP 4: Y111.35 Low Nov 29
*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation has seen the pair head lower to taking
out key supports. Bears need a close below to shift focus back to Y110.83-111.67
where monthly lows, 100 & 200-DMAs are noted. Initial resistance is noted at
Y113.30 with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure whereas a
close above Y114.06 is now needed to reconfirm a bullish bias that initially
targets Y114.72 where the LT TL off 2015 highs is found.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.47-88 Resistance Region Now Key
*RES 4: Y134.50 2017 High Oct 25
*RES 3: Y133.88 High Dec 11
*RES 2: Y133.47 Hourly resistance Dec 12
*RES 1: Y133.17 Hourly resistance Dec 13
*PRICE: Y132.99 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y132.58 Hourly support Dec 7
*SUP 2: Y132.24 Low Dec 6
*SUP 3: Y132.13 Daily Bull channel base off Aug Low
*SUP 4: Y131.79 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair is looking a little heavy having failed to trouble 2017
highs. The Y133.47 resistance is key today with bulls needing a close above to
ease renewed bearish pressure and return focus to the break of Y133.88 needed to
confirm initial focus on 2017 highs. The Y131.71-132.24 region where the 100-DMA
and bull channel base are situated remains key support. Bears need a close below
Y131.71 to hint at a move back to the 200-DMA with below Y131.21 confirming.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Focus Shifts To $1269.9-1289.5
*RES 4: $1285.1 - Daily Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1277.9 - Hourly resistance Dec 1
*RES 2: $1269.9 - Low Nov 14 now resistance
*RES 1: $1260.1 - Monthly Low Oct 6 now resistance
*PRICE: $1255.1 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1249.2 - Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 2: $1240.2 - Low Dec 13
*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: $1227.8 - Low July 17
*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalise further on recent fresh 6mth lows
with the bounce easing immediate bearish pressure. Correcting O/S daily studies
add support to the case for a move back to layers of resistance $1269.9-1289.5
where DMAs and bear channel top are noted. The $1235.9 support is now key with
bears needing a close below to reconfirm a bearish bias and focus on the channel
base ($1208.4).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.