MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

2 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bollinger Band Base Limits Follow Through

*RES 4: $0.7868 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 2: $0.7785 - 200-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7773 - 100-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7759 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but

follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7225).

Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls now look for

a close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish

pressure and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a

close below $0.7694 to add weight to their case.

     KIWI TECHS: Above $0.7272 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7272 - Low Feb 23 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7252 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7174 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7088 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7043 - High Dec 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: A potential bullish key day reversal has emerged after the bounce

from ahead of the 200-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7272 to

gain breathing room and above $0.7385 to target $0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017

highs are situated. Bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move

back to $0.6952 and then $0.6779 2017 lows. The Bollinger base is noted at

$0.7181 and is the key concern for bears.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Overall Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While MAs Cap

*RES 4: NZ$1.0887 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0848 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0830 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0747 - Low Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0700 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs has resulted

in an aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears look for

a close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of NZ$1.0458-91

where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above

NZ$1.0747 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move

targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 3: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 1: Y83.26 - Low Feb 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.51 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.06 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: Y81.76 - Lows May 18 & June 6 2017

*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in continued fresh 2018 & 8mth lows that add

weight to the case for a test of Y81.47 2017 lows that have been bearish focus

for the past couple of weeks. A close below 2017 lows potentially targets

Y76.80. Bulls still need a close above Y83.26 to gain breathing room and above

Y84.89 to target a correction back to key DMAs clustered Y86.57-67. O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Narrowing Bolli Bands Hint At Breakout

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5911 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*PRICE: A$1.5796 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2 

*SUP 4: A$1.5495 - Monthly High Jan 25

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range continues with

follow through previously lacking in both direction. Bears need a close below

A$1.5598 to shift focus back to A$1.5480-95 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 2018 highs to reconfirm a bullish bias and

target A$1.5968-1.6250 where 2016 highs are located. Narrowing Bollinger bands

increase the likelihood of a breakout.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA

*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 90.903 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 90.306 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

leaves a bearish key day reversal setup in place with bears continuing to look

for a close below 90.080 to shift initial focus to 89.442. A close below this

level then sees immediate focus back to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and

the Bollinger top (90.857) remain concerns for bulls who now need a close above

91.011 to initially pressure 91.751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Hinting At Correction To $1.2335-1.2435

*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $1.2335 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2272 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2264 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2181) is

a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at

$1.2159. The $1.2092 support remains key. Bears need a close below to end

bullish hopes and initially target $1.1915-90 where the 100-DMA is located. The

bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2335-1.2435 with a close above needed to

return initial focus to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y105.50 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y107.81 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y107.19 High Mar 1

*PRICE: Y106.20 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 2: Y105.32 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 has left the pair looking

heavy and retains immediate bearish focus on a retest of 2018 lows. A close

below Y105.50 remains needed to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Resistance

layers are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y108.42 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and hint at a correction to Y110.47 with above

Y109.78 to confirm. Daily studies are well placed for fresh losses.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 200-DMA

*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 3: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*RES 2: Y131.45 Hourly support Feb 28a now resistance

*RES 1: Y131.31 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.22 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows leave the pair looking heavy with

overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 & 200-WMAs

which may support along the way. The Bollinger base is noted at Y129.24 and

remains unchallenged indicating the move isn't getting ahead of itself. Bulls

now need a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to

target a correction back to Y132.99-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Aggressive Bounce Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1319.5 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: $1300.0 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1286.9 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1268.9 - High Dec 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger

base ($1307.8) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction

from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing

room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs

are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to

$1235.9 Dec lows.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $62.13 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: $61.45 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.18 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 3: $59.11 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $58.72 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the lack of follow through Thursday with

bulls now needing a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above

$64.97 to return initial focus to $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While

the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the

100-DMA and daily bull channel base are situated. Correcting O/B studies remain

a concern for bulls.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]