MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694

*RES 4: $0.7872 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7841 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7819 - High Feb 28

*RES 1: $0.7785 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7767 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but

follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7225).

Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls look for a

close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish pressure

and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a close below

$0.7694 to add weight to their case.

     KIWI TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 

*RES 2: $0.7291 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7279 - High Mar 2

*PRICE: $0.7238 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7176 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7089 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7043 - High Dec 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal emerged after the bounce from ahead of

the 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room

and above $0.7385 to target $0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017 highs are situated.

Bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.6952 and

then $0.6779 2017 lows. The Bollinger base is noted at $0.7173 and is the key

concern for bears.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Overall Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While MAs Cap

*RES 4: NZ$1.0879 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0850 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0747 - Low Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0719 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs resulted in an

aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears look for a

close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of NZ$1.0458-91

where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above

NZ$1.0747 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move

targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On 2017 Low

*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 3: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 1: Y83.26 - Low Feb 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Y82.02 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.86 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: Y81.56 - 2018 Low Mar 2

*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in continued fresh 2018 & 8mth lows that have

fallen just short of Y81.47 2017 lows that have been bearish focus for the past

couple of weeks. A close below 2017 lows potentially targets Y76.80. Bulls still

need a close above Y83.26 to gain breathing room and above Y84.89 to target a

correction back to key DMAs clustered Y86.45-58. O/S daily studies remain the

key concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To A$1.6250

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5956 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5919 - 2018 High Mar 2

*PRICE: A$1.5872 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5817 - High Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range has come to an end

with a break higher to fresh 2018 and 2+year highs Friday. Bulls now shift focus

to A$1.6250 2016 highs with daily studies being well placed for gains. The

Bollinger top (A$1.5834) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a

close below A$1.5817 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below A$1.5697 to

shift focus back to A$1.5598.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA

*RES 4: 90.840 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2

*PRICE: 89.935 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.786 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance

left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting

initial focus to 89.442. A close below this level then sees immediate focus back

to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top (90.825) remain

concerns for bulls who now need a close above 91.011 to initially pressure

91.751.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2435 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2339 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 3: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2191) is

a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at

$1.2164. The bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2372-1.2435 with a close

above needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains

key. Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-95 where the 100-DMA is located.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.39 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y105.63 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y105.04 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking

heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 7 15mth lows. Follow through has been a

little lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers

are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain

breathing room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Around 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 3: Y131.34 200-DMA

*RES 2: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.78 High Mar 1

*PRICE: Y130.24 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows left the pair looking heavy last

week with overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 &

200-WMAs with the 200-WMA currently supporting. The Bollinger base is noted at

Y129.22 and remains unchallenged. Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to

gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction back to

Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1330.0-1351.3 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1316.9 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1300.3 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1287.2 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger

base ($1306.6) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction

from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing

room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs

are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to

$1235.9 Dec lows.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS:  (J18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA 

*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 2: $61.95 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: $61.45 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: $60.13 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 3: $59.20 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: $58.82 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with bulls now needing a close above the

21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $64.97 to return initial focus to

$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused

on layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the 100-DMA ($58.82) and daily bull

channel base ($59.20) are situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the

bearish case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]