MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

9 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7842 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 3: $0.7880 - 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7842 - High Mar 6

*RES 1: $0.7814 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $0.7789 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 2: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The pair has struggled with the 21-DMA ($0.7833) this week and the

rejection ahead of $0.7842 leaves the pair looking a little heavy. Bears now

look for a close below $0.7753 to ease bullish pressure and below $0.7694 to

confirm focus on tests of $0.7500 Dec lows. The $0.7842 resistance is now key.

Bulls now need a close above to hint at a move back to $0.7989 with above

$0.7910 now needed to confirm.

     KIWI TECHS: Below $0.7219 To Return Focus To 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7273 - Hourly support Mar 8 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7261 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7219 - Low Mar 6

*SUP 2: $0.7179 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7094 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA is proving something of a stumbling block with the

failure to gain traction above leaving the pair looking a little heavy. The

$0.7219 support is key today with bears needing a close below to shift initial

focus back to the 200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a

move back to Dec lows with below $0.7042 needed to confirm. Bulls now need a

close above $0.7318 to confirm focus on 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Above NZ$1.0776 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: NZ$1.0866 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0854 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0776 - High Mar 1

*PRICE: NZ$1.0725 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure last week ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs

resulted in an aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears

look for a close below NZ$1.0650 to add weight to the case for a test of

NZ$1.0458-91 where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls still need a

close above NZ$1.0776 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y83.32

*RES 4: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.80 - High Feb 28 

*RES 2: Y83.78 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*PRICE: Y82.76 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 2: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*SUP 3: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 4: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: 2018 & 8mth lows lacked follow through this week leaving a double

daily bottom in place with the Bollinger base and O/S daily studies key

concerns. Topside follow through is a little lacking with bulls still needing a

close above Y83.32 to gain breathing room and above Y84.89 to target key DMAs

clustered Y86.29-59. Bears now need a close below Y82.03 to gain breathing room.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Looking Offered

*RES 4: A$1.6187 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: A$1.5976 - 2018 High Mar 5

*RES 2: A$1.5941 - High Mar 8

*RES 1: A$1.5853 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: A$1.5794 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5739 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through been elusive once again this week and has

taken its toll with the pair looking offered and focus back on A$1.5697-1.5739

where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears need a close below A$1.5697 to shift focus back

to A$1.5598. Daily studies correcting from modestly O/B is less than ideal for

bulls. Bulls now need a close above A$1.5976 to reconfirm a bullish bias

targeting A$1.6187-1.6250 where the daily bull channel top is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus Returns To 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.569 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2

*PRICE: 90.153 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.859 - Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction on the break below 89.442 has resulted in

rally and bullish close that eased bearish pressure and sees focus back on

90.569-91.011 where the 55-DMA is located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 91.011 to shift initial focus to 91.751. Initial support is now noted on

the hourlies at 89.859 but bears now need a close below 89.407 to end bullish

hopes and shift focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.2092-1.2153

*RES 4: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 3: $1.2482 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 1: $1.2364 Alternating support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.2304 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2 

*SUP 2: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to stall on approach to the weekly bear channel

top ($1.2640) off 2008 highs and looks offered to end the week. The likely close

below $1.2320 sees focus return to the $1.2092-1.2153 support region. Resistance

layers left in the wake add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a close above

$1.2446 to reconfirm focus on $1.2555-1.2640 where 2018 highs and the LT bear

channel top are situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y107.19 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.19 High Mar 1 

*RES 2: Y106.96 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance

*PRICE: Y106.24 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y105.14 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation and a lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows is less

than ideal for bears who are currently focused on Y98.95-101.15. In saying that,

resistance layers remain in place with bulls needing a close above Y107.19 to

ease bearish pressure. Above Y108.03 is needed to hint at a correction to

Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm. Daily studies have room to move

before O/S becomes an issue. Bears now need a close below Y105.22.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus Back On 200-WMA

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.18 High Feb 27

*RES 2: Y131.89 21-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.19 Hourly support Mar 8 now resistance

*PRICE: Y131.59 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.57 200-WMA 

*SUP 2: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 3: Y128.68 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above the 200-DMA and the 21-DMA now

capping has resulted in a sell-off and sees immediate focus back on Y129.33-57

where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are noted. Bears now look for a close below

Y129.33 to initially pressure the 55-WMA and reconfirm overall focus on

Y125.80-127.54, Bulls now need a close above Y132.18 to ease bearish pressure

and shift initial focus to Y133.05-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Topside Failure Weighing, 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1329.0 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1321.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1301.7 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1288.4 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 21-DMA was brief with the correction lower

Wednesday leaving gold looking a little heavy. Bears now look for a close below

$1312.9 to confirm a return in focus to $1288.12-1302.5 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1351.3 to initially focus on

$1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted. Daily studies are well placed for

gains.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bears Need Close Below 100-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 

*RES 3: $62.78 - Hourly resistance Mar 6 

*RES 2: $61.65 - Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 1: $60.81 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*PRICE: $60.28 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $59.57 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: $59.23 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $57.88 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $55.96 - Monthly Low Dec 7

*COMMENTARY: Failing to gain traction above 21 & 55-DMAs ($61.43-00) has left

the contract looking heavy and immediate focus on the bull channel base and

100-DMA. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to

$53.30-55.37 with below $57.90 to confirm. Layers of resistance are building and

weighing with bulls now needing a close above $61.65 to gain breathing room and

above $64.24 to hint at a move back to $66.39-65.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]