MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of Falling TL Off 2018 High Again

*RES 4: $0.7989 - High Feb 16

*RES 3: $0.7951 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: $0.7935 - High Feb 19

*RES 1: $0.7912 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*PRICE: $0.7882 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7840 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7773 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7753 - Hourly support Mar 5 

*SUP 4: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 55-DMA ($0.7890) has lacked follow through with

the pair again rejected ahead of the falling daily TL off 2018 highs. Bulls look

for a close above $0.7935 to confirm a break of the TL and above $0.7989 to

shift overall focus to $0.8135-62 where 2015 & 2018 highs are situated. Bears

continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below

the 100-DMA to return pressure to $0.7694-0.7710.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7243-85 Support Region Key

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7410 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 1: $0.7354 - Highs Mar 13 & 14

*PRICE: $0.7333 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7307 - Hourly support Mar 13

*SUP 2: $0.7285 - Hourly support Mar 12

*SUP 3: $0.7243 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 4: $0.7182 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the aggressive break of the 21-DMA ($0.7301)

although topside follow through remains lacking. In saying that, the run of

higher daily lows adds to bullish confidence and sees focus on $0.7436 2018

highs. Initial support is noted at $0.7307 but bears need a close below $0.7285

to ease renewed bullish pressure and below $0.7243 to shift initial focus back

to the 200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to target Dec lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bollinger Top Capping, Bears Regain Control

*RES 4: NZ$1.0860 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0834 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0790 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: NZ$1.0779 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: NZ$1.0747 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading continues as Bollinger bands narrow and increase

the likelihood of a breakout in the near future. Bears need a close below

NZ$1.0700 to return focus to NZ$1.0588-1.0650 where 2018 lows and the bear

channel base are situated. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0894 to confirm

breaks of 55 & 200-DMAs and hint at a move to NZ$1.1006-73 where 2018 highs are

noted.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y83.32 Support Remains Key Today

*RES 4: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 3: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 2: Y84.54 - High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.75 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.32 - High Mar 6

*SUP 2: Y82.50 - Low Mar 8

*SUP 3: Y82.03 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 4: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19, 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and the double daily bottom looks to be

in trouble with a lack of follow through leaving the pair looking heavy again

today. Bears look for a close below Y83.32 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below Y82.50 to confirm focus on 2018 lows. Bulls still need a

close above Y84.89 to add support to the case for a test of key DMAs Y86.04-62.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Dominate While A$1.5824 Caps

*RES 4: A$1.5853 - Hourly resistance Mar 8

*RES 3: A$1.5824 - High Mar 9

*RES 2: A$1.5792 - High Mar 14

*RES 1: A$1.5744 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5693 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5619 - Low Mar 12 

*SUP 2: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 3: A$1.5545 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5525 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 Low

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the rejection ahead of A$1.5824-53 that saw

the pair head back towards A$1.5488-1.5598 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull

channel base off 2018 lows are situated. A close below the 100-DMA (A$1.5488) is

needed to shift focus to A$1.5152-1.5256 where the 200-DMA (A$1.5196) is noted.

Bulls still need a close above A$1.5824 to confirm a return in initial focus to

A$1.5941-1.6020 where 2018 highs and the bull channel top are located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Below 89.407 To Target 2018 Lows

*RES 4: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 3: 90.318 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: 90.187 - High Mar 12 

*RES 1: 89.891 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: 89.711 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.837 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA remains a concern for bulls who need

a close above 90.420 to confirm a break and shift initial focus to 91.011. A

close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751-944 where the 100-DMA is noted.

The 89.407 support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm

traction below the 21-DMA (89.773), ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back

to 88.253 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2340

*RES 4: $1.2639 Weekly Bear channel top

*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2485 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*PRICE: $1.2374 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2340 Hourly support Mar 13a 

*SUP 2: $1.2313 Low Mar 13 

*SUP 3: $1.2271 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: $1.2265 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair stalled on approach to the weekly bear channel top

($1.2639) off 2008 highs in past weeks. Bulls take comfort in support emerging

on dips back towards the 55-DMA with the close above $1.2364 shifting initial

focus to $1.2446 and bulls needing a close above to reconfirm focus on

$1.2555-1.2639 where 2018 highs and the LT bear channel top are situated. Bears

need a close below $1.2340 to see focus back on the 55-DMA.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y107.29 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.55 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y106.75 High Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.24 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.79 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on the break of the bear channel top off

2018 highs and Y107.19. The pair remains heavy with bears initially focused on

2018 lows with overall focus on Y98.95-101.15. Bolli bands narrow which hints at

a break out in the near future. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y107.29

to confirm a break of the bear channel top and shift initial focus to Y108.03-42

with above this region to hint at a move back to Y109.79-110.47.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y130.49 Initially Pressures 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y133.12 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 1: Y131.93 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y131.49 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.95 Low Mar 12 

*SUP 2: Y130.49 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: Y129.53 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on closes above 21 (Y131.55) & 200

(Y131.62) DMAs with pair looking a little offered as a resulted. The Y130.49

support is now key with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus back

to Y129.33-53 where 2018 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Layers of resistance

remain a concern for bulls who now look for a close above Y132.44 to reconfirm

focus on Y133.05-134.16 where 55 (Y133.73) & 100 (Y133.36) DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Traction Lacking Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $1330.0 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: $1325.2 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1321.5 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 2: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support 

*SUP 3: $1303.4 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Bounces from $1312.9 see gold pressuring the 21-DMA ($1329.4) with

Wednesday's pop above lacking follow through. Bulls now look for a close above

$1330.0 to confirm a break and gain breathing room whereas a close above $1351.3

remains needed to initially focus on $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs are noted.

Bears need a close below $1312.9 to return focus to $1289.3-1303.4 where 100 &

200-DMAs are situated.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Hesitating Around 55-DMA 

*RES 4: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 3: $62.22 - High Mar 12 

*RES 2: $62.03 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $61.34 - High Mar 14

*PRICE: $60.89 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.18 - Low Mar 14 

*SUP 2: $59.91 - Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: $59.41 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $59.18 - High Feb 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing from the $59.18-91 support region last week where

the 100-DMA and bull channel base ($59.56) are located, failure to gain traction

above the 55-DMA is a concern for bulls who are focused on $63.05-64.07 this

week. Overall a close above $64.07 remains needed to return focus to

$66.02-68.21. Bears need a close below $59.18 to hint at a move back to

$54.10-55.90 with below $57.60 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]