MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

20 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: 2018 Lows Lack Follow Through

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7803 - 200-DMA, Hourly resistance Mar 16a

*RES 2: $0.7775 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7736 - Hourly resistance Mar 16

*PRICE: $0.7716 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7684 - 2018 Low Mar 19 

*SUP 2: $0.7625 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7572 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 4mth lows have lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger band base ($0.7707). Bulls now need a close above $0.7736 to gain

breathing room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus back to $0.7842-0.7935 where

the falling TL off 2018 highs is noted. While $0.7736 caps bears remain focused

on tests of $0.7572-80 where Dec lows and the Bull channel base off 2016 lows

are situated.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7337 - Hourly resistance Mar 14 

*RES 3: $0.7303 - Hourly support Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7280 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.7278 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7247 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7236 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: $0.7193 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: $0.7182 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7174 - Monthly Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the bounce from $0.7174-93 and now look for a

close above the 21-DMA to return focus to $0.7315-54. A close above $0.7354

remains needed to target 2018 highs ($0.7436). The $0.7174 support remains key.

Bears need a close below to hint at a move back to Nov ($0.6779) lows with a

close below the 100-DMA to confirm breaks of key WMAs and add weight to the

case.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus Returns To NZ$1.0464-1.0590

*RES 4: NZ$1.0830 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12

*RES 2: NZ$1.0700 - Low Mar 9 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0663 - Hourly resistance Mar 19

*PRICE: NZ$1.0646 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0590 - Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0464 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from last week's hesitation around NZ$1.0802 has

resulted in fresh 2018 & 9mth lows with immediate focus on NZ$1.0464-1.0590

where the bear channel base and rising TL off 2015 lows are situated. Studies

are well placed for losses but the Bollinger base (NZ$1.0654) is the key concern

for bears. Bulls now need a close above NZ$1.0700 to ease bearish pressure and

target a correction back to NZ$1.0802-63.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y82.70 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.22 - Hourly support Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.29 - Hourly support Mar 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.87 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.22 - 2018 Low Mar 19

*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows have so far lacked follow through with the

Bollinger band base noted at Y81.64 and the key concern for bears. The recovery

has remained capped ahead of Y82.29. Bulls now need a close above this level to

gain breathing room and above Y82.70 to hint at a move back to Y84.51-89 with

above Y83.22 to confirm. While Y82.70 caps initial focus remains on Y80.24.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Focused On A$1.6250 2016 High

*RES 4: A$1.6620 - Monthly High Nov 27 2009

*RES 3: A$1.6323 - 2015 High Aug 24

*RES 2: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 1: A$1.6045 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: A$1.5986 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5941 - High Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 2: A$1.5898 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 3: A$1.5828 - Hourly resistance Mar 16 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+ year highs see immediate pressure on the top of the

bul channel that has defined 2018 so far with overall focus on 2016 highs. The

Bollinger top (A$1.5958) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit

follow through. Layers of support are adding to bullish confidence. In saying

that, bears now need a close below A$1.5897 to ease bullish pressure and to

shift focus back to A$1.5795-1.5828.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 90.573 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 

*RES 1: 90.077 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 89.886 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*SUP 2: 89.407 - Low Mar 7

*SUP 3: 89.294 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: The 90.420 resistance has again confirmed significance with

pressure on this level failing to produce a break. Bulls need a close above

90.420 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (90.180) and shift initial focus to

91.011. A close above 91.011 is needed to target 91.751. Bears still need a

close below 89.407 to confirm traction below the 21-DMA (89.934), ending bullish

hopes and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018 lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Layers Of Resistance $1.2384-1.2443

*RES 4: $1.2446 High Mar 8

*RES 3: $1.2414 High Mar 14

*RES 2: $1.2430 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $1.2384 High Mar 15

*PRICE: $1.2341 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2301 Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 2: $1.2241 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 3: $1.2214 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair is lacking follow through on dips below the 55-DMA

($1.2283), bouncing from ahead of $1.2241 Monday. Layers of resistance

$1.2384-1.2446 are now key. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to target

$1.2555-1.2639. Initial support is noted at $1.2301 but it's the $1.2241 support

that remains key. Bears look for a close below $1.2241 to target the key

$1.2092-1.2153 support region.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.75-107.29 Resistance Region To Watch

*RES 4: Y107.53 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14 

*RES 1: Y106.40 Hourly resistance Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.11 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016 

*SUP 4: Y99.08  2016 Low June 2016

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.40-75 sees the pair looking heavy with

bears focused on the break of 2018 lows needed to add weight to the case for a

test of the Y99.08-101.15 support region. Layers of resistance building add to

bearish confidence. Bulls need a close above Y106.75 to gain breathing room and

above Y107.29 to shift initial focus to Y108.03-92 where the 55-DMA (Y108.68) is

located. While Y106.75 caps immediate focus remains on 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y130.29 To Target Y132.44

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.73 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.29 Hourly resistance Mar 15a

*PRICE: Y130.95 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.27 Hourly resistance Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 2: Y129.90 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards 2018

lows with the Bollinger band base limiting follow through. Bulls now need a

close above Y131.29 to gain breathing room. Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs

are situated remain key with bulls needing a close above to target 2018 highs.

Bears now look for a close below Y130.27 to ease pressure on Y131.01 and below

the 55-WMA (Y129.08) to target Y125.80-127.54.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1321.7-1330.0 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: $1321.7 - High Mar 16

*PRICE: $1316.4 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.6 - Hourly resistance Mar 16 now support 

*SUP 2: $1307.5 - Low Mar 16 

*SUP 3: $1304.7 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA is less than

ideal with the Bollinger base ($1309.2) currently limiting follow through. In

saying that, bulls need a close above $1321.7 to ease bearish pressure and above

$1330.0 to confirm breaks of 21 ($1324.3) & 55 ($1329.4) DMAs, shifting focus

back to $1340.7-1351.3. Bears need a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back

to $1235.9 and below the 200-DMA to confirm.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $63.61 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: $63.05 - High Mar 6 

*RES 1: $62.46 - Falling daily TL off Feb 2 high

*PRICE: $62.26 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $61.90 - Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 2: $61.45 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 3: $60.86 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: $60.18 - Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region provided the impetus for a close above 21 & 55-DMAs Friday with focus on

$63.05-64.07. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return focus to 2018 highs with

the Bollinger band top their key concern. Bears now need a close below $61.45 to

ease bullish pressure and below $59.18 to hint at a move back to $54.10-55.90

with below $57.60 to confirm.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]