MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

21 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focus On $0.7500-80 While $0.7736 Caps

*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $0.7804 - 200-DMA, Hourly resistance Mar 16a

*RES 2: $0.7775 - 100-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7736 - Hourly resistance Mar 16

*PRICE: $0.7680 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7572 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2016 low 

*SUP 4: $0.7500 - Monthly Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 4mth lows continue with the Bollinger band base

($0.7698) the key concern. Bulls need a close above $0.7736 to gain breathing

room and above the 200-DMA to shift focus back to $0.7842-0.7935 where the

falling TL off 2018 highs is noted. While $0.7736 caps bears remain focused on

tests of $0.7500-80 where Dec lows and the Bull channel base off 2016 lows are

situated.

     KIWI TECHS: Below 21-WMA To Target 2017 Low

*RES 4: $0.7279 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.7265 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7227 - Hourly resistance Mar 20 

*RES 1: $0.7205 - Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7177 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7174 - Monthly Low Feb 8

*SUP 2: $0.7137 - 55-WMA

*SUP 3: $0.7122 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: $0.7120 - 21-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out the $0.7265-79 resistance where 21 & 55-DMAs

are noted sees pressure back on the $0.7174 monthly low. Bears now look for a

close below the 21-WMA to shift initial focus to $0.7008-42 and overall focus to

$0.6779 2017 lows. The Bollinger base is the key concern with potential to limit

follow through. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 55-DMA to return

initial focus to $0.7315-54.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Bear Channel Top

*RES 4: NZ$1.0865 - 200-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12

*RES 1: NZ$1.0744 - Daily Bear channel top off 2018 high

*PRICE: NZ$1.0697 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0675 - Hourly support Mar 20

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0654 - Hourly support Mar 20a

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0631 - 2018 Low Mar 19

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31, Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 and 9mth lows have lacked follow through with support

layers starting to emerge on the hourlies. The bear channel top off 2018 highs

is initial resistance with bulls now needing a close above to shift focus back

to NZ$1.0802-65 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. While the bear channel

top caps bears remain focused on the break of NZ$1.0588 needed to target the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows around NZ$1.0464.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y82.70 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y83.97 - Hourly support Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y82.29 - Hourly support Mar 16 now resistance

*PRICE: Y81.79 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.22 - 2018 Low Mar 19

*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows have so far lacked follow through with the

Bollinger band base noted at Y81.48 and the key concern for bears. The recovery

has remained capped ahead of Y82.29. Bulls now need a close above this level to

gain breathing room and above Y82.70 to hint at a move back to Y84.51-89 with

above Y83.22 to confirm. While Y82.70 caps initial focus remains on Y80.24.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Daily Bull Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.6053 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: A$1.6040 - 2018 High Mar 20

*RES 1: A$1.5986 - Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5942 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5898 - Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: A$1.5828 - Hourly resistance Mar 16 now support 

*SUP 3: A$1.5795 - High Mar 15 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15

*COMMENTARY: Despite 2018 & 2+yr highs continuing the daily bull channel top has

capped with the sell-off leaving the pair looking a little heavy. The A$1.5898

support remains key with bears needing a close below to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and to shift focus back to $1.5779-1.5828 where the 21-DMA is

located. While A$1.5898 supports bulls focus on the daily bull channel top with

a close above then targeting A$1.6250 2016 highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.407 & 90.420 Levels Key

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.011 - Low Sept 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 90.548 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1

*PRICE: 90.406 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.158 - Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*SUP 2: 89.958 - Hourly resistance Mar 20a now support

*SUP 3: 89.846 - Low Mar 20

*SUP 4: 89.561 - Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 89.407-90.420 continues and sees Bollinger bands

narrowing and hinting at a breakout in near future. Bulls need a close above

90.420 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (90.152) and shift initial focus to

91.011. Bears still need a close below 89.407 to confirm traction below the

21-DMA (89.992), ending bullish hopes and shifting focus back to 88.253 2018

lows.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Below $1.2241 Initially Targets $1.2092-1.2161

*RES 4: $1.2384 High Mar 15

*RES 3: $1.2359 High Mar 19

*RES 2: $1.2332 Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.2287 Hourly resistance Mar 20

*PRICE: $1.2246 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2241 High Feb 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2210 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.2161 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low 

*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the $1.2384-1.2446 resistance region leaves the

pair looking heavy and pressuring $1.2241. Bears need a close below this level

to sift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2161 where the bull channel base off Nov

lows is located. The Bollinger base is the key concern with potential to limit

follow through although narrowing Bollis suggest a break out soon. Bulls need a

close above $1.2446 to $1.2555-1.2639.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.75-107.29 Resistance Region To Watch

*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y107.51 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: Y107.29 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: Y106.75 High Mar 14

*PRICE: Y106.52 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.27 Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016 

*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016

*COMMENTARY: Despite hesitating around the 21-DMA (Y106.53), downside follow

through has been lacking with support emerging ahead of 2018 lows and the

Bollinger band base (Y105.54). In saying that, bulls continue to look for a

close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to shift focus to

Y108.03-42. Bears need a close below Y105.22 2018 lows to reconfirm overall

focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies remain largely neutral.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 3: Y132.44 High Mar 13

*RES 2: Y131.77 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y130.86 Hourly support Mar 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.44 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.85 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: Y129.48 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: Y129.07 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top off 2018 highs

Tuesday leaves the pair looking heavy with focus back on the Y129.07-48 support

region where 55 & 200-WMAs and the 2018 low are situated. Bears need a close

below the 55-WMA to target Y125.80-127.54. The Bollinger base is the key concern

having limited follow through. Bull snow need a close above the 200-DMA to

target Y132.44-134.16 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Narrowing Bollinger Bands Ringing Alarm Bells

*RES 4: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 3: $1330.0 - High Mar 14 

*RES 2: $1321.7 - High Mar 16 

*RES 1: $1313.6 - Hourly resistance Mar 20

*PRICE: $1310.44 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1305.0 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: $1293.5 - Low Dec 29 

*SUP 4: $1290.1 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA is less than

ideal with narrowing Bollis hinting at a break out. In saying that, bulls need a

close above $1321.7 to ease bearish pressure and above $1330.0 to confirm breaks

of 21 ($1322.6) & 55 ($1329.2) DMAs, shifting focus to $1340.7-1351.3. Bears

need a close below $1302.5 to hint at a move back to $1235.9 and below the

200-DMA to confirm.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Above $64.07 To Target 2018 High 

*RES 4: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $65.63 - Monthly High Feb 2 

*RES 2: $64.07 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.83 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $63.52 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20 

*SUP 2: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a 

*SUP 3: $61.90 - Hourly support Mar 19 

*SUP 4: $61.45 - Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the key $59.18-91 support

region provided the impetus for a close above 21 & 55-DMAs Friday with focus on

$64.07. Bulls need a close above $64.07 to return focus to 2018 highs with the

Bollinger band top their key concern. Bears now need a close below $63.31 to

ease bullish pressure and below $62.52 to initially pressure $61.45.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]