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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
23 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Target $0.7500-80 While 200-DMA Caps
*RES 4: $0.7842 - Alternating daily support/resistance
*RES 3: $0.7805 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7784 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: $0.7735 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7706 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7679 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: $0.7669 - 2018 Low Mar 21
*SUP 3: $0.7626 - 100-WMA, Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the bullish key day reversal with the
pair remaining capped around DMAs $0.7776-0.7805. Bulls now look for a close
above the 200-DMA to pressure $0.7842-0.7916 where the falling TL off 2018 highs
and 55-DMA are located. Above $0.7916 shifts focus to $0.8135-62. While the
200-DMA caps bears remain focused on $0.7500-80 and now look for a close below
$0.7669 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base remains the key concern.
KIWI TECHS: Key WMAs Supporting, Key DMAs Capping
*RES 4: $0.7324 - Falling TL off 2018 high
*RES 3: $0.7315 - Low Mar 14 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7282 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7265 - Low Mar 15 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7219 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7191 - Hourly resistance Mar 21 now support
*SUP 2: $0.7151 - Low Mar 21
*SUP 3: $0.7137 - 55-WMA
*SUP 4: $0.7122 - 21-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite bouncing following the emergence of support ahead of key
WMAs $0.7122-37 the pair has remained capped ahead of the 21 & 55-DMAs. Bulls
need a close above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus back to $0.7315-54 where
the TL off 2018 highs is noted. The $0.7122-37 support region remains key with
bears needing a close below to hint at a move back to 2017 lows with below
$0.7042 to confirm.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Dominate While 55-WMA Caps
*RES 4: NZ$1.0867 - 200-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0830 - 55-WMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0802 - High Mar 12
*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22
*PRICE: NZ$1.0667 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0654 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0631 - 2018 Low Mar 19
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0581 - Daily Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the close above the 21-DMA
(NZ$1.0723) following the bounce from 2018 lows with the pair looking heavy once
again. Bears currently focus on NZ$1.0581-1.0631 where the bear channel base is
noted with a close below needed to confirm focus on the LT rising TL off 2015
lows coming in around NZ$1.0463. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to gain
breathing room.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Resistance Layers Building
*RES 4: Y83.49 - Low Mar 14 now resistance
*RES 3: Y82.70 - Low Mar 15 now resistance
*RES 2: Y82.22 - Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance
*RES 1: Y81.72 - Hourly resistance Mar 22
*PRICE: Y81.21 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y80.98 - 2018 Low Mar 22
*SUP 2: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016
*SUP 3: Y76.78 - Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*SUP 4: Y75.95 - Monthly Low Sept 15 2016
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows following the failure to break above Y82.70
leave the pair looking heavy with bears now looking for a close below Y80.24 to
target Y75.95-76.78. The Bollinger base (Y81.27) remains the key concern for
bears. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to the bearish case with
bulls continuing to look for a close above Y82.70 to hint at a move back to
Y84.51-89 with above Y83.49 to confirm.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Target A$1.6250 While 21-DMA Supports
*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11
*RES 3: A$1.6069 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: A$1.6040 - 2018 High Mar 20
*RES 1: A$1.6005 - High Mar 22
*PRICE: A$1.5973 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5905 - Hourly support Mar 22
*SUP 2: A$1.5856 - Low Mar 22
*SUP 3: A$1.5801 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: A$1.5688 - Low Mar 15
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on the dip back towards the
21-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus back
to A$1.5495-1.5619 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bull channel base off 2018 lows
are found. While the 21-DMA supports bulls focus on the A$1.6250 2016 high with
a close above A$1.6040 to add support to their case. The Bollinger top
(A$1.6003) continues to limit follow through and is the key concern.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Follow Through Remains Absent
*RES 4: 90.536 - Low Sept 8 now resistance
*RES 3: 90.445 - High Mar 20
*RES 2: 90.260 - Hourly resistance Mar 21
*RES 1: 90.011 - Hourly support Mar 21 now resistance
*PRICE: 89.807 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 89.434 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 89.396 - Low Mar 22
*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The DXY continues to bounce back and forth between Bollinger bands
with follow through lacking on breaks of key support and resistance levels.
Bulls now need a close above 90.445 to shift initial focus to 91.011 whereas
bears now need a close below 89.396 to shift overall focus back to 2018 lows
(88.253). In saying that, initial resistance is noted at 90.011 with bulls
needing a close above to ease bearish pressure an reconfirm sideways trading.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of Key Resistance Region
*RES 4: $1.2420 Bollinger band top
*RES 3: $1.2412 High Mar 14
*RES 2: $1.2388 High Mar 22
*RES 1: $1.2338 Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance
*PRICE: $1.2316 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2240 Low Mar 20
*SUP 2: $1.2174 Daily Bull channel base off Nov Low
*SUP 3: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support
*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the falling TL ($1.2361) off 2018 highs has
been lacking with bears taking comfort in the rejection ahead of $1.2412-46
where the Bollinger top is noted. Bulls need a close above $1.2446 to confirm
focus on $1.2555-2627 where the LT bear channel top off 2008 highs is found.
bears continue to look for a close below $1.2240 to confirm focus on
$1.2081-1.2174 with the 100-DMA at $1.2081.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Below Y105.22 To Confirm Focus On Y99.08-101.15
*RES 4: Y107.29 High Mar 13
*RES 3: Y107.18 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Y106.75 High Mar 14
*RES 1: Y106.09 Hourly resistance Mar 21
*PRICE: Y105.38 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2
*SUP 2: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*SUP 3: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*SUP 4: Y99.08 2016 Low June 2016
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of Y106.75-107.29 has taken its toll with the pair
heading back towards 2018 lows. The Bollinger base (Y105.55) remains the key
concern for bears who look for a close below 2018 lows to reconfirm overall
focus on Y99.08-101.15. Daily studies are well placed for losses. Bulls continue
to look for a close above Y106.75 to ease bearish pressure and above Y107.29 to
shift initial focus to Y108.03-42 with the 55-DMA at Y108.33.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.06-48 Support Region Key
*RES 4: Y132.44 High Mar 13
*RES 3: Y131.84 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y131.15 Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: Y130.50 Hourly support Mar 22 now resistance
*PRICE: Y129.76 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.48 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.33 2018 Low Mar 5
*SUP 3: Y129.06 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: The rejection at the 200-DMA and bear channel top off 2018 highs
Tuesday leaves the pair looking heavy with focus back on the Y129.06-48 support
where 55 & 200-WMAs and the 2018 low are situated. Bears need a close below the
55-WMA to target Y125.80-127.54. The Bollinger base (Y129.80) is the key concern
having limited follow through. Bulls now need a close above Y130.50 to gain
breathing room and above the 200-DMA to target Y132.44-133.24.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1318.3
*RES 4: $1351.3 - High Feb 19
*RES 3: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 2: $1340.7 - High Feb 26
*RES 1: $1336.3 - Bollinger band top
*PRICE: $1329.1 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1323.0 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: $1318.3 - High Mar 20 now support
*SUP 3: $1306.2 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA provided the base
for an aggressive break of key DMAs with focus having returned to layers of
resistance $1340.7-1351.3. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls.
Layers of support have been left in the wake with bears now needing a close
below $1318.3 to shift focus back to $1302.5-1306.2 where the 100-DMA is
located.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (K18) Bears Need Close Below $63.99
*RES 4: $66.66 - 2018 High Jan 25 (Cont)
*RES 3: $66.02 - Monthly High Jan 25
*RES 2: $65.74 - High Mar 22
*RES 1: $65.32 - Hourly resistance Mar 22
*PRICE: $64.26 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $63.99 - Hourly support Mar 21a
*SUP 2: $63.31 - Hourly support Mar 20
*SUP 3: $62.52 - Hourly support Mar 20a
*SUP 4: $61.45 - Low Mar 19
*COMMENTARY: The failure to trouble $66.02-66 has left the contract looking a
little heavy with focus back on the $63.99 support today. Bears continue to look
for a close below this level to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus
back to $61.45-62.52 where 21 ($62.18) & 55 ($62.41) DMAs are situated. While
$63.99 supports bulls remain focused on $66.02-66 with a close above needed to
target $69.54-73.25 last seen in early 2014.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.