MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

29 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Focused On Dec 2016 Low

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7407 - High June 27

*RES 1: $0.7378 - Low June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7349 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7152 - Monthly Low Dec 26 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Wed saw bears shift focus to $0.7152 Dec

2016 monthly lows although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7226) may slow the

move. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($0.7264) are key concerns for

bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above

$0.7481 to shift initial focus back to $0.7536-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7536) DMA

is located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Targeting $0.6543-0.6674 Region

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6823 - Low June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6787 - Hourly resistance June 28

*PRICE: $0.6756 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6744 - 2018 Low June 28

*SUP 2: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 3: $0.6580 - Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: $0.6574 - Low Mar 16 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation at $0.6921 sees repeated fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows

with bearish focus on the $0.6543-0.6674 region where the weekly bear channel

base and monthly lows are situated. O/S studies and the Bollinger base ($0.6754)

are key concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6845 to gain

breathing room and above $0.6921 to shift immediate focus back to $0.6969-96

where the 55-DMA is noted.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0830

*RES 4: NZ$1.1073 - 2018 High Jan 29

*RES 3: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0962 - High May 25

*RES 1: NZ$1.0906 - Low May 25 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0871 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0759 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the rejection ahead of the 200-DMA

Wed with a bounce ahead of NZ$1.0775 resulting in a close above the 200-DMA and

focus back on NZ$1.0906. Bulls need a close above NZ$1.0906 to hint at a move

targeting 2018 highs with above NZ$1.0962 to confirm. Bears now need a close

below NZ$1.0830 to ease bullish pressure. The Bollinger top (NZ$1.0916) is the

key concern for bulls.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y81.93 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y82.97 - Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 2: Y81.93 - High June 22 

*RES 1: Y81.63 - High June 27

*PRICE: Y81.20 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*SUP 2: Y80.51 - 2018 Low Mar 23

*SUP 3: Y80.29 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of the Y81.93 resistance have seen immediate

focus on 2018 lows this week. Bears now look for a close below Y80.24 to

reconfirm a bearish bias and shift focus to Y74.50-75.95. O/S daily studies and

the Bollinger base are key concerns for bears. Bulls still need a close above

Y81.93 to gain breathing room and above Y82.97 to shift focus to Y83.63-85.00

where the 200-DMA is noted.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Below A$1.5694 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High May 15

*RES 2: A$1.5825 - High June 27

*RES 1: A$1.5784 - High June 28

*PRICE: A$1.5737 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 

*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5541 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: The break of A$1.5771 and the 100-DMA (A$1.5773) has so far lacked

follow through with O/B daily studies now weighing. In saying that, bears now

look for a close below A$1.5694 to confirm a break of the bull channel base

(A$1.5746) and return initial focus to A$1.5615-50. While A$1.5694 supports

bulls remain focused on A$1.5887-1.5967 but continue to look for a close above

A$1.5825 to add support to their case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.568 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.533 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 95.531 - 2018 High June 28

*PRICE: 95.296 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 95.090 - Low June 28

*SUP 2: 94.951 - Hourly support June 27

*SUP 3: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 4: 93.171 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip below the 21-DMA (94.337) has seen the

index bounce back to fresh 2018 & 12mth highs. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 100-WMA (95.568) to target 96.617. Layers of support building

add to bullish confidence. Bears need a close below 94.951 to gain breathing

room and below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (94.337) and shift

initial focus to 93.193.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus Remains On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $1.1691 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 3: $1.1665 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1644 Hourly resistance June 27

*RES 1: $1.1600 High June 28

*PRICE: $1.1567 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1509 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1434 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA and bear channel top has seen

pressure return to the 2018 low ($1.1506). Bears look for a close below $1.1506

to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1434) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs

may support along the way. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing.

Bulls now need a close above $1.1600 to gain breathing room and above $1.1723 to

target $1.1854-1.1901.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y110.90

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15

*PRICE: Y110.48 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 2: Y109.57 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.70 Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 following the bounces from

around the 55-DMA this week. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm

traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.18) and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98.

Bears still need a close below Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

(Y109.57) and Bull channel base, initially pressuring Y107.85-108.19 where the

100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Below Y126.22 To Target 2018 Low

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.81 High June 25

*RES 1: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25

*PRICE: Y127.81 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at Y128.81 saw the pair dip below the bull channel base

(Y127.78) off 2018 lows with immediate focus on Y126.22-98. Bears need a close

below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows. O/S daily

studies and the Bollinger base (Y126.87) are concerns for bears. The Y128.81

resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure

and hint at a move back to layers of resistance Y129.74-131.37.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA & LT TL

*RES 4: $1274.3 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 2: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1254.3 - High June 28

*PRICE: $1247.9 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1245.3 - 2018 Low Jan 28 

*SUP 2: $1237.9 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue to add weight to the bearish case

targeting tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.9. The

Bollinger base ($1247.8) and O/S daily studies looking to correct are noted as

key concern for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA to

gain breathing room and above $1292.1 to return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $72.18

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $75.87 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 1: $74.03 - 2018 High June 28

*PRICE: $73.28 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $73.10 - Hourly resistance June 28 now support 

*SUP 2: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($68.08) provided the base for gains that

have resulted in fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs. Bulls now focus their attention on the

$75.87-79.85 region where the LT weekly bull channel top ($75.87) is situated.

O/B studies and the Bollinger top ($71.71) remain concerns for bulls. In saying

that, bears now need a close below $72.18 to gain breathing room and below

$71.40 to shift initial focus back to $69.44-70.02.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]