MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

5 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Above $0.7552 To Target 100 & 200-DMAs

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7441 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7397 - Hourly support July 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7382 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7371 - Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7256 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows Monday added to bearish confidence with

bears targeting $0.7152 Dec 2016 monthly lows, although the weekly bear channel

base ($0.7216) may slow the move. In saying that, bulls need a close above

$0.7443 to gain breathing room and above $0.7552 now to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7509) and shift focus to $0.7627-0.7735 where 100 & 200-DMAs are

situated.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6823-0.6921 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6845 - Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6823 - Low June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6792 - High July 2

*PRICE: $0.6759 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6741 - Low July 4

*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6577 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation at $0.6921 saw repeated fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows

with bearish focus on $0.6543-0.6674 where the weekly bear channel base and

monthly lows are situated. O/S studies and the Bollinger base ($0.6675) are key

concerns for bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.6823 to gain breathing room

and above $0.6921 to shift initial focus back to $0.6949-96 where the 55-DMA is

noted.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0830

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0965 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*RES 1: NZ$1.0957 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0913 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0899 - Low July 4

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.0964) are impacting

with a lack of follow through on Tuesday's 5mth highs and the pair remaining a

little offered. The NZ$1.0830 support is now key. Bears look for a close below

NZ$1.0830 to confirm a break below the 200-DMA, easing bullish pressure and

return focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0807 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bulls now need

a close above NZ$1.1006 to reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y80.24 To Target Y74.50-75.95

*RES 4: Y82.58 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: Y82.46 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: Y82.10 - High July 2 

*RES 1: Y82.06 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y81.52 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.44 - Low July 2

*SUP 2: Y80.99 - Low July 2

*SUP 3: Y81.05 - Low June 29

*SUP 4: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: Despite bearish pressure on 2018 lows the past couple of weeks

bears have failed to make fresh 2018 lows. The bounce last week saw bulls gain

breathing room but key DMAs clustered tightly Y82.06-58 are a concern. Bulls now

need a close above the 100-DMA (Y82.58) to end bearish hopes and shift focus

back to Y83.63-85.00 where the 200-DMA is noted. While the 100-DMA caps bears

target a break lower with below Y80.24 to target Y74.50-75.95.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus On 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5911 - Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5887 - High July 15

*RES 1: A$1.5828 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5791 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5702 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 

*SUP 3: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 4: A$1.5615 - Low June 20

*COMMENTARY: Daily momentum divergence and O/B daily studies appear to be

impacting with the pair remaining capped at the A$1.5887-1.5967 region with a

close above needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. O/B studies remain the key concern for bulls. The close below

A$1.5825 sees focus back on layers of support A$1.5615-1.5705 where the 21

(A$1.5667) & 55-DMAs are located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressuring 21-DMA/Channel Base

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.544 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 1: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.540 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.473 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 94.397 - Low July 4

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.470 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs have lacked follow through with hesitation

around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close above the

100-WMA (95.545) to target 96.617. The 94.028 support remains key. Bears need a

close below this level to confirm traction below the 21-DMA and bull channel

base (94.658) and to shift initial focus back to 93.193-470 where the 55-DMA is

located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1723 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1791 55-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 1: $1.1697 Hourly resistance July 2

*PRICE: $1.1655 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the bear channel top off Apr 19 highs capping

last week with the $1.1723 resistance remaining key. Bulls still need a close

above $1.1723 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA ($1.1659) and bear channel top

($1.1634) initially targeting $1.1791-1.1901. Bears continue to look for a close

below $1.1506 to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1441) & 200

($1.1393) WMAs may slow the move.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Above Y112.04 To Target 200-WMA & 2018 High

*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22

*PRICE: Y110.45 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.15 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 3: Y109.82 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern  with Y111.39-112.04 where May

highs are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end

bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.22-44 where the 200-WMA

(Y113.22) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a

close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to return

pressure to Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y130.32 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.81 Daily Bear channel top off 2018 highs

*RES 2: Y129.50 55-DMA

*RES 1: Y129.05 Hourly resistance July 3

*PRICE: Y128.76 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: The rally from last week's low saw pressure return to

Y129.50-130.32 where 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top off 2018 highs are

situated. Bears take comfort in the topside failures with bulls needing a close

above the 100-DMA (Y130.32) to initially target Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA

(Y131.98) is noted. Bears now need a close below Y128.40 to gain breathing room

and below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: 200-WMA & LT Rising TL Confirm Significance

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1273.5 - 100-WMA, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1256.2 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1251.4 - Low July 4 

*SUP 2: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 3: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 4: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA support. Bears continue to look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm

breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls now look for a close

above $1262.7 to return pressure to $1273.5 where the 100-WMA is noted.

Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.18 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $76.06 - Weekly Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.57 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 1: $74.90 - High July 4

*PRICE: $74.33 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $73.50 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 2: $72.73 - Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $72.51 - Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily and

weekly bull channel tops. The Bollinger top ($75.70) and very O/B daily studies

remain key concerns for bulls and limit follow through. Bears now need a close

below $73.50 to gain breathing room. Below $72.18 remains needed to hint at a

move back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]