MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

10 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Below 21-DMA To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: $0.7552 - Weekly Low June 4 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7499 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7483 - High July 9

*PRICE: $0.7464 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7444 - High July 6 now support 

*SUP 2: $0.7419 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: $0.7348 - Hourly resistance July 3 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 & 18mth lows last week

with the pair trading at the week's high Friday. Bulls now need a close above

the 55-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.7611-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7611) & 200

($0.7692) are located with above $0.7552 confirming. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg higher before O/B is an issue. Bears now need a close

below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure.

     KIWI TECHS: Hesitating Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $0.6932 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 2: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 1: $0.6858 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6835 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6824 - Low July 9

*SUP 2: $0.6797 - High July 5 now support

*SUP 3: $0.6741 - Low July 4

*SUP 4: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the $0.6674 May

2016 low that along with correcting O/S studies provided the impetus for a

bounce last week. This week bulls look for a close above the 55-DMA ($0.6932) to

hint at a move back to $0.7059-0.7157 where 100 ($0.7084) & 200 ($0.7079) DMAs

and key WMAs are clustered. Bears now need a close below $0.6797 to ease

pressure on the 21-DMA and below $0.6741 to reconfirm focus on $0.6674-86.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0830

*RES 4: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 3: NZ$1.0957 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0926 - High July 4

*RES 1: NZ$1.0934 - High July 9

*PRICE: NZ$1.0919 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0886 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.0982) impacted with a

lack of follow through on last Tuesday's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in the

bounce to start the new week but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support is

noted at NZ$1.0886 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and

below NZ$1.0830 to confirm a break below the 200-DMA (NZ$1.0862), easing bullish

pressure and returning focus to NZ$1.0775-1.0815 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Closes Above Key DMAs

*RES 4: Y84.70 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.19 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.63 - High June 14

*PRICE: Y82.74 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.53 - 100-DMA

*SUP 2: Y82.45 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: Y82.24 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 4: Y81.93 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite bearish pressure on 2018 lows the past couple of weeks

bears have failed to make fresh 2018 lows. The bounce last week saw bulls gain

breathing room with Monday's close above 55 & 100-DMAs shifting initial focus to

Y83.63-85.00 where the 200-DMA (Y84.70) is noted. Layers of support are

following the pair higher. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA to ease

bullish pressure and below Y81.59 to shift focus back to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5877

*RES 4: A$1.5917 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High July 15

*RES 2: A$1.5815 - High July 9

*RES 1: A$1.5774 - Low July 5

*PRICE: A$1.5738 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5687 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5650 - Low June 22 

*SUP 3: A$1.5615 - Low June 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5581 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily momentum divergence and O/B daily studies impacted last week

with the pair remaining capped at the A$1.5887-1.5967 region with a close above

needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly highs are noted.

O/B studies remain the key concern for bulls. The pair remains offered having

closed back below A$1.5774 with immediate focus on the A$1.5615-1.5709 region

where the 21 (A$1.5709) & 55-DMAs are located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Supporting For Now

*RES 4: 95.141 - High July 2 

*RES 3: 94.728 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance 

*RES 2: 94.573 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 94.206 - High July 9

*PRICE: 94.059 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 93.679 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 3: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*SUP 4: 92.246 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.523) to target 96.617. The break of 94.028 sees immediate

pressure on the 55-DMA and bears now focused on a break of 93.193 needed to

pressure 100 (91.991) & 200 DMAs. Bulls now need a close above 94.728 to gain

breathing room and return pressure to 95.140-531.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1723

*RES 4: $1.1889 Low May 11 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 2: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 1: $1.1790 High July 9

*PRICE: $1.1750 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1723 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1670 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 3: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 4: $1.1589 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA to start the

new week is less than ideal for bulls. The $1.1889-1.1924 region where the

55-WMA ($1.1924) is noted is key. Bulls now need a close above the 55-WMA to

shift initial focus to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2013) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs

are found. Bears now need a close below $1.1723 to ease renewed bullish pressure

and below $1.1589 to pressure 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: 55-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y112.04 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 2: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 

*RES 1: Y111.18 High May 22

*PRICE: Y110.79 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.12 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.95 Low June 28, 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.35 Low June 25 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: Recent topside hesitation is a concern with Y111.39-112.04 where

May highs are noted remaining key. Bulls look for a close above Y112.04 to end

bearish hopes, shifting immediate focus to Y113.23-44 where the 200-WMA

(Y113.23) is noted and overall focus to Y114.72 Nov highs. Bears now need a

close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to confirm a

break of the bull channel base (Y110.35) off 2018 lows and return pressure to

Y109.01. A close below Y109.01 initially targets Y107.85-108.24.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.34

*RES 4: Y131.47 55-WMA

*RES 3: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 2: Y130.34 Highs June 13 & 14

*RES 1: Y130.26 100-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.22 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 2: Y129.37 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5 

*SUP 4: Y128.40 Low July 2

*COMMENTARY: Last week saw a pop above the daily bear channel top (Y129.67) but

hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is a concern. Bulls now need a close above

Y130.34 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and the bear channel top and to shift

immediate focus to Y131.37-132.59 where the 200-DMA (Y131.94) is noted. Bears

now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below Y128.40 to

shift immediate focus back to Y126.22.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Rejected Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1272.7 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1267.9 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1257.3 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1257.0 - Hourly breakout level July 9 

*SUP 2: $1250.7 - Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1244.1 - Hourly support July 3 

*SUP 4: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows lacked follow through Tuesday with an

aggressive bounce from below the LT rising TL off 2015 lows and ahead of the key

200-WMA ($1234.0). Bears look for a close below the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of

key supports and initially target $1204.5. Bulls now need a close above the

21-DMA to return initial focus to $1272.7 where the 100-WMA is noted. Correcting

O/S studies are a concern for bears.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $72.14 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: $75.86 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: $75.27 - 2018 High July 3 

*RES 2: $74.90 - High July 4 

*RES 1: $74.28 - High July 9

*PRICE: $74.01 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $72.99 - Low July 9 

*SUP 2: $72.14 - Low July 6 

*SUP 3: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs last Tuesday remained capped ahead of daily

and weekly bull channel tops. Very O/B daily studies remain key concerns for

bulls and limit follow through. Below $72.14 is now needed to hint at a move

back to $69.44-70.02 with a close below $71.40 to add weight to their case.

While $72.14 supports bulls retain an advantage with focus remaining on bull

channel tops $75.86-76.32.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]