MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

19 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Support Emerging Ahead Of 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7442 - High July 16

*PRICE: $0.7399 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7331 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on Wednesday's low and support emerging

ahead of 2018 lows is less than ideal for bears. In saying that, daily studies

remain well placed for a fresh leg lower with a close below $0.7308 still needed

to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Bulls still need a close above

$0.7459 to gain breathing room and above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA ($0.7482) and hint at a move back to $0.7586-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7586) &

200 ($0.7680) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.6858-0.6921 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 3: $0.6858 - High July 9 

*RES 2: $0.6840 - High July 17 

*RES 1: $0.6804 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.6793 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6723 - Low July 13

*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6566 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 21-DMA resulted in a sharp

sell-off Tuesday and focus back on the $0.6674 2018 low. Bears look for a close

below 2018 lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel base coming in around

$0.6566 today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now

need a close above $0.6858 to gain breathing room and above $0.6921 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA ($0.6903) and hint at a move back to $0.7053-70 where

100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key This Week

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*RES 1: NZ$1.0935 - Low July 16 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0887 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0860 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0842 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the key NZ$1.1006 resistance again resulted in a

dip back to NZ$1.0842-60 where 21, 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears still need

a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to

NZ$1.0775. Initial resistance remains at NZ$1.0935 with bulls needing a close

above to gain breathing room. A close above NZ$1.1006 remains needed to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Below Y82.72 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: Y84.57 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y84.53 - High June 7 

*RES 2: Y84.27 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: Y83.68 - High June 14

*PRICE: Y83.46 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.16 - Hourly resistance July 18 now support

*SUP 2: Y82.72 - High July 10 now support

*SUP 3: Y82.22 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*COMMENTARY: The closes above Y83.16 add to bullish confidence and see focus on

Y84.53-89 where the 200-DMA is located. Daily studies looking to correct from

O/B levels remain a key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at

Y82.16 but bears still need a close below Y82.72 to gain breathing room. The

Y81.59 support remains key this week. Bears need a close below this level to

confirm traction below the 21-DMA (Y82.22) and shift focus back to Y80.24-63.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: A$1.5887-1.5967 Resistance Region Remains Key

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*RES 2: A$1.5853 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5830 - High July 18

*PRICE: A$1.5736 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5709 - Low July 13 

*SUP 2: A$1.5694 - Low June 27 

*SUP 3: A$1.5657 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5650 - Low June 22

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5887-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5887 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bears now look

for a close below A$1.5694 to gain breathing room and below the 55-DMA to

initially focus on A$1.5541-1.5604 where the 200-DMA is located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Capped Ahead Of 100-WMA

*RES 4: 97.045 - Low June 19 2017 now resistance 

*RES 3: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 2: 95.536 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: 95.407 - High July 18

*PRICE: 95.096 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.774 - High July 16 now support

*SUP 2: 94.257 - Daily Bull channel base off Apr low

*SUP 3: 94.062 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

daily bull channel base with focus remaining on the 95.536 resistance region

where the key 100-WMA resistance is noted. Bulls continue to look for a close

above the 100-WMA (95.536) to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below

the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 93.713 to confirm traction below the

55-DMA and bull channel base, initial focus on 92.837-93.193, and hint at a move

back to 100 (92.319) & 200 (92.285) DMAs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $1.1589

*RES 4: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 3: $1.1744 High July 17

*RES 2: $1.1715 55-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1675 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: $1.1636 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 2: $1.1562 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 3: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017

*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1715) remains lacking and sees

immediate pressure back on the $1.1589 support. Bears need a close below this

level to confirm a break of the bull channel base and focus on retests of 2018

lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1450) & 200

($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA, easing bearish pressure, and above the 55-WMA

($1.1927) to shift initial focus to $1.1971-1.2053 where 100 ($1.1971) & 200

($1.1981) DMAs are found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y112.17

*RES 4: Y114.72 Monthly High Nov 6 

*RES 3: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 2: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 1: Y113.26 200-WMA

*PRICE: Y112.87 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y112.55 High July 16 now support 

*SUP 2: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 7mth highs continue with bulls currently focused on the

Y113.24-74 region where the 200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily

studies and the Bollinger top (Y113.23) are the key concern for bulls and

currently limit follow through. Bears now need a close below Y112.17 to ease

bullish pressure and below Y111.35 to shift focus back to Y109.95-111.13 where

key DMAs and the bull channel base (Y110.88) off 2018 lows are noted.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: 200-DMA Capping

*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24 now resistance

*RES 3: Y132.42 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y131.90 200-DMA

*RES 1: Y131.77 Hourly resistance July 18

*PRICE: Y131.37 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.14 Hourly resistance July 18 now support 

*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 

*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 4: Y130.27 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to flirt with the 55-WMA (Y131.54). Bulls

continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of the 55-WMA

and target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted. O/B daily

studies looking to correct and the Bollinger top (Y132.42) limiting follow

through are key concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y130.64 to

shift initial focus back to Y129.83. Below Y129.83 hints at a move back to

Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA (Y129.29) to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 

*RES 1: $1229.2 - High July 18

*PRICE: $1226.4 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1214.0 - Low July 12 2017 

*SUP 2: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 3: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1180.7 - Weekly Low Jan 27 2017

*COMMENTARY: Flirtation with the LT rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and

pressure on the 200-WMA have taken their toll with gold gaining traction below

the 200-WMA and bears focused on $1204.6 July 2017 lows. The Bollinger base

($1228.3) is the key concern for bears and currently limits follow through.

Bulls now need a close above $1236.6 to gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to

return initial focus to $1271.4-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) 55 & 21-DMAs Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 3: $69.25 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $68.42 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $68.09 - Low July 12 now resistance

*PRICE: $67.93 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $67.21 - Hourly support July 18 

*SUP 2: $65.99 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: $64.63 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 4: $64.20 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation took its toll with the correction from last

week's lows stalling ahead of the $71.13 resistance. The sell-off Monday sees

immediate focus back on the 100-DMA and overall focus return to the June monthly

low ($62.99). Daily studies approaching O/S is a concern for bears. Bulls need a

close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above the 21-DMA to shift

initial focus to $71.13.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]