MNI BRIEF: Canada Feb Trade Balance Seen Widest Since 2014

Canada's trade surplus likely widened in February to the largest since 2014 as higher energy prices boosted exports, with economists predicting it grew to CAD1.6 billion from January's CAD1.4 billion in the Statistics Canada report due Wednesday at 8:30 EST.

Such a result would help ratify Statistics Canada's flash estimate for a strong GDP gain of 0.5% in February, which economists say would translate to annualized growth of 5% in the first quarter. That resilience is a big reason the market sees the central bank tapering bond purchases at its April 21 decision.

There are still reasons to watch for weakness. Auto shutdowns in January may pull down exports, and some of January's gains were linked to seeming one-offs such as sales of gold bars to U.S. retail investors and aircraft being sent into storage in the U.S.