Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
U.S. employment likely rose by a solid 500,000 in June, according to a real-time labor market index from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, economist Max Dvorkin told MNI.
The Coincident Employment Index, using weekly data from time-tracker software provider Homebase, "continues its upward path and this suggests a very strong jobs report for June," Dvorkin said. The forecast for household survey employment is an increase of around 500,000 seasonally adjusted and a bit over 1 million employed people in unadjusted terms.
Dvorkin noted that over the past couple months, the index has shown a "somewhat stronger employment growth relative to the official numbers, so we are cautious." It predicted a seasonally adjusted gain of 440,000 in May, compared to the official BLS figure of 321,000.
The index uses unadjusted Homebase data to predict unadjusted household employment, so from a purely predictive perspective, Dvorkin focuses on the unadjusted data, he said. However, seasonal forces can be large some months, leading to important changes in employment from one month to the next, which is important from an economic perspective, he said.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.