MNI BRIEF: UK Job Losses Higher Than ONS Headline: BOE Haldane

Looking at administrative data, tax returns and other figures, a best guess is that about a million people have lost their jobs as a result of the Covid-19 crisis, an estimate well above the headline figures from the Office for National Statistics, Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said Tuesday.

The key for unemployment going forward was how far the economic recovery gets before the Treasury ends its job support schemes, which are currently scheduled to wind up in April, Haldane told a seminar at Oxford University. If GDP was within five percentage points of the pre-crisis level when the job schemes are terminated Haldane said that he anticipated no further job losses at that point.

Asked if the UK debt stock rising to over 100% of GDP posed a financial stability risk, Haldane said that because of record low interest rates the cost of servicing the national debt was now lower than it was 12 months ago and that that suggested that the UK was "not facing any impending fiscal problem."