Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- CBRT seen keeping headline rates unchanged at 9.00%
- Adminstration expected to double-down on low rates Liraization policy pre-elections
- Sell-side split on longer-term view, but most see sharp action required by year-end
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:
The CBRT is expected maintain the one-week repo rate at 9.00%, as the bank remains highly politically influenced and willing to look through inflation in excess of 60%. Furthermore, the 2023 Monetary and Exchange Rate Report released in December strengthened the macro-prudential measures in force, as well as the focus on Liraization. This allows room for Turkey to maintain its low-interest policy path for the months to come, including the run-up to the Presidential elections.
Since the previous meeting, inflation decelerated to 64.3% Y/Y in December (from 84.4% in November), mostly due to elevated base effects, with further deceleration expected in January 2023. Fundamental pressure on the lira is likely to have increased due to the lack of tourist revenues over the winter period, meaning further rate cuts would make maintaining the lira’s stability more difficult.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.