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MNI Chile Central Bank Preview - May 2023: No Change in Guidance Yet

MNI Chile Central Bank Preview - May 2023

MNI Chile Central Bank Preview - May 2023

Executive Summary

  • The BCCh is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11.25%. Despite headline inflation receding, central bank rhetoric combined with the persistence of high core inflation and inflation expectations solidifies the likelihood of the committee maintaining its current stance of monetary policy.
  • However, several analysts are expecting that upcoming meetings will become much closer calls, and therefore the statement will be closely scrutinised for clues on when monetary easing could be expected.

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BCCh President Reiterates Rate Hold Pledge

Having recently remarked that the domestic economy has adjusted less than expected to tighter monetary policy, central bank President, Rosanna Costa, has reiterated her stance that the central bank will need to hold rates until the process of inflation convergence has consolidated. She also provided a warning that a premature rate reduction provided large risks.

Speaking on April 13, Costa stated that she was aware of the risks from tight monetary policy but warned against an early interest rate cut. The cost of a hurried rate reduction could be “tremendously high,” Costa told Bloomberg TV, allowing inflation and inflation expectations to rebound. She said there was a “certain asymmetry” between the risks of cutting too soon or too late, driving home the central bank’s recent hawkish bias.

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