MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 19

EXCLUSIVE: China’s reference lending rate will likely remain unchanged in December as elevated wholesale money market rates increase bank financing costs, while strong government debt issuance drains liquidity from the interbank market, analysts and economists told MNI.

LIQUIDITY: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY119 billion via 7-day reverse repo and CNY182 billion via 14-day, with the rates unchanged at 1.80% and 1.95%, respectively. The reverse repo operation has led to a net drain of CNY113 billion reverse repos after offsetting CNY414 billion maturity today, according to Wind Information.

RATES: China's seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) decreased to 1.7660% from 1.8419%, Wind Information showed. The overnight repo average decreased to 1.5655% from the previous 1.6074%.

YUAN: The currency weakened to 7.1435 against the dollar from 7.1311 on Monday. The PBOC set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.0982, compared with 7.0933 set on Monday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1338 by Bloomberg survey today.

BONDS: The yield on 10-year China Government Bonds was last at 2.6500%, up from 2.6475% at Monday's close, according to Wind Information.

STOCKS: The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.05% to 2,932.39 while the CSI300 index rose 0.14% to 3,334.04. The Hang Seng Index was down 0.75% to 16,505.00.

FROM THE PRESS: The yuan will likely further strengthen against the U.S. dollar to break the 7 level next year as the Federal Reserve is expected to start rate cuts, financial news agency Cls.cn reported citing market insiders. Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, adjusted the yuan forecast for end-2023 to around 7.1 from the previous 7.3, and raised the forecast for 2024 to 7.0 from the previous 7.15. Wang noted that the yuan may depreciate again in Q1 2024 given the People’s Bank of China could further loosen monetary policy. The PBOC will likely not cut interest rates after spring when the Chinese economy likely stabilises, Wang added.

The National Conference on Development and Reform plans to use government investment to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery next year. Leaders will utilise local government special bonds plus the additional CNY1 trillion of treasury bonds to boost sectors such as transport infrastructure, energy, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, an NDRC statement noted. Policymakers will accelerate the transformation of old and new driving forces and promote the development of the private economy and ensure equal treatment of SOE and POE firms. (Source: Securities Daily)

China should accelerate the establishment of a national unified market by improving market access, property rights protection and fundamental institutions on transaction, data information, and social credit, according to a State Council executive meeting on Monday presided over by Premier Li Qiang. The meeting urged efforts to conduct in-depth special rectifications of market segmentation and local protection, and called on the advancement of fiscal and statistical reforms. (Source: Gov.cn)