November 05, 2024 10:16 GMT
MNI CNB Preview - Nov 2024: 25bp Cut Is Base-Case Scenario
The CNB is expected to lower the repo rate by another 25bp, extending the "fine-tuning" phase of the cycle.
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Executive Summary:
- The CNB is expected to continue cautious monetary easing.
- There has been some dissonance in comms re: optimal easing trajectory.
- The new macro forecast may shed light on the rate outlook.
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:
MNI CNB Preview - November 2024.pdf
The Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25bp, maintaining a steady pace of monetary easing during the “fine-tuning” phase of the cycle. Persistent inflationary pressure in the services sector will likely prevent the Bank Board from returning to outsized cuts. Bank Board consensus seems to remain skewed towards continued cautious easing and the spectre of the US election and Fed rate decision this week will likely provide another argument to avoid out-of-consensus moves. We align with the majority view in forecasting another standard-sized cut this week.
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